Frosinone vs AC Milan prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Frosinone at AC Milan: Bandwagon's model makes AC Milan a 58% favorite (AC Milan −1); Kalshi prices them at 62%.
Frosinone vs AC Milan model odds and win probability
Axle gives AC Milan a 58% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that AC Milan win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 58%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Kalshi has AC Milan at 62%, Axle at 58%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has AC Milan
All Serie A ratings| FRO | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1454 10th of 20 | 1555 5th of 20 |
| Record | 6-3-2 | 7-1-3 |
| Last 5 games | 3-1-1 | 4-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MIL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | — |
Frosinone vs AC Milan odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices AC Milan at 62%, Polymarket at 62%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 58%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | FRO | Draw | MIL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 18% | 20% | 62% | ||
| Polymarket | 17% | 21% | 62% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 18% | 25% | 58% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Frosinone vs AC Milan prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the AC Milan a 1-point favorite at home, with a 58% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: AC Milan 1555 (5th of 20), Frosinone 1454 (10th). The AC Milan are 7-1-3; the Frosinone are 6-3-2. The AC Milan have won 4 of their last 5; the Frosinone 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the AC Milan won 2, the Frosinone 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Frosinone
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Cagliari | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Torino | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lecce | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atalanta | T 4–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sassuolo | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup |
AC Milan
Head-to-head
Injuries
Frosinone: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
AC Milan: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Frosinone6-3-2 6th
- Frosinone rating1454 10th of 20, 11 games
- AC Milan7-1-3 4th
- AC Milan rating1555 5th of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Frosinone 6-3-2
Serie A · 6th
No stances yet today on $FROSINONE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Frosinone bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
AC Milan 7-1-3
Serie A · 4th
No stances yet today on $MILAN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the AC Milan bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Frosinone at AC Milan
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: AC Milan 58% to win, draw 25%. Projected score AC Milan 2.2, Frosinone 1.3; spread AC Milan −1, total 3.5. Kalshi 62%, Polymarket 62% for AC Milan. Frosinone at AC Milan, Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM ET.