AS Roma vs Parma prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
AS Roma at Parma: Bandwagon's model makes AS Roma a 66% favorite (AS Roma −1); Kalshi prices them at 73%.
AS Roma vs Parma model odds and win probability
Axle gives AS Roma a 66% chance to win, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that AS Roma win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 66%.
The largest gap is 8 points: Polymarket has AS Roma at 74%, Axle at 66%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has AS Roma
All Serie A ratings| ROMA | PAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1614 2nd of 20 | 1374 15th of 20 |
| Record | 8-0-3 | 2-7-2 |
| Last 5 games | 3-1-1 | 1-3-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | PAR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:48 PM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:03 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:58 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 13% | — |
AS Roma vs Parma odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices AS Roma at 73%, Polymarket at 74% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 66%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ROMA | Draw | PAR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% | 17% | 10% | ||
| Polymarket | 74% | 17% | 9% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 66% | 21% | 13% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
AS Roma vs Parma prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the AS Roma a 1-point favorite, with a 66% chance to win and a 21% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Parma 1374 (15th of 20), AS Roma 1614 (2nd). The Parma are 2-7-2; the AS Roma are 8-0-3. The Parma have won 1 of their last 5; the AS Roma 3 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Parma won 0, the AS Roma 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
AS Roma
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sassuolo | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Manchester United | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Udinese | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cagliari | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Napoli | T 3–3 | – | – | matchup |
Parma
Head-to-head
Injuries
AS Roma: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Parma: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- AS Roma8-0-3 3rd
- AS Roma rating1614 2nd of 20, 11 games
- Parma2-7-2 16th
- Parma rating1374 15th of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
AS Roma 8-0-3
Serie A · 3rd
No stances yet today on $ASROMA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the AS Roma bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Parma 2-7-2
Serie A · 16th
No stances yet today on $PARMA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Parma bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on AS Roma at Parma
Sign in to post a take on $ASROMAPARMA261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: AS Roma 66% to win, draw 21%. Projected score AS Roma 2.0, Parma 1.0; spread AS Roma −1, total 3. Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 74% for AS Roma. AS Roma at Parma, Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM ET.