Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Flyers at Capitals: Bandwagon's model makes the Capitals a 61% favorite (Capitals −0.5).
Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Capitals a 61% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Capitals win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 61%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Polymarket has the Capitals at 62%, Axle at 61%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before puck drop. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Capitals
All NHL ratings| PHI | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1467 25th of 32 | 1523 12th of 32 |
| Record | 5-10-6 | 10-7 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | WSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 12:18 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 10:48 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:53 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:43 PM ET | 61% | −1 |
| Nov 12, 2:52 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | — |
Flyers vs Capitals odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Capitals at 62%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 61%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PHI | WSH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 38% | 62% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 39% | 61% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Capitals a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 61% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Capitals 1523 (12th of 32), Flyers 1467 (25th). The Capitals are 10-7 in the Metropolitan Division; the Flyers are 5-10-6 in the Metropolitan Division. The Capitals have won 2 of their last 5; the Flyers 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Capitals won 5, the Flyers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Philadelphia Flyers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Edmonton Oilers | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Calgary Flames | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Rangers | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup |
Washington Capitals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New Jersey Devils | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ottawa Senators | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Panthers | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Stars | L 5–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals | 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers | 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals | 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals | 4–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals | 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Philadelphia Flyers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Washington Capitals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Flyers5-10-6 Metropolitan Division, 7th · L1
- Flyers rating1467 25th of 32, 21 games
- Capitals10-7 Metropolitan Division, 4th · L1
- Capitals rating1523 12th of 32, 17 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Philadelphia Flyers 5-10-6
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $FLYERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia Flyers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Washington Capitals 10-7
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CAPITALS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Capitals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals
Sign in to post a take on $FLYERSCAPITALS261126: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Capitals 61% to win. Projected score Capitals 3.6, Flyers 2.9; spread Capitals −0.5, total 6.5. Polymarket 62% for the Capitals. Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, Wed, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ET.