Montreal Canadiens vs New York Rangers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerCanadiens 54%
- Projected scoreCanadiens 3.3, Rangers 3.2
- Model spreadeven total 6.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Montreal Canadiens or New York Rangers: the bandwagon
Axle 54–46Market 54–47
Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Montreal Canadiens vs New York Rangers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Montreal Canadiens vs New York Rangers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MTL | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL– | NYR– |
| Average win probability | MTL– | NYR– |
| Longest scoring run | MTL– | NYR– |
| Time leading | MTL– | NYR– |
Montreal Canadiens vs New York Rangers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NYR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:46 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 46% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 45% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | — |
- Ratings
- NYR 1486 · MTL 1541
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Canadiens vs Rangers odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Canadiens at 54%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MTL | NYR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 54% | 47% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 54% | 46% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Montreal Canadiens vs New York Rangers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Canadiens the favorite, with a 54% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Rangers 1486 (19th of 32), Canadiens 1541 (6th). The Rangers are 7-7-1 in the Metropolitan Division; the Canadiens are 9-3-2 in the Atlantic Division. The Rangers have won 1 of their last 5; the Canadiens 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Rangers won 4, the Canadiens 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Montreal Canadiens
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Winnipeg Jets | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Penguins | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Stars | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis Blues | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Winnipeg Jets | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
New York Rangers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs St. Louis Blues | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Edmonton Oilers | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Kings | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ottawa Senators | L 4–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toronto Maple Leafs | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers | 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens | 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens | 7–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Montreal Canadiens: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New York Rangers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Canadiens9-3-2 Atlantic Division, 2nd · W5
- Canadiens rating1541 6th of 32, 15 games
- Rangers7-7-1 Metropolitan Division, 5th · L4
- Rangers rating1486 19th of 32, 16 games
Montreal Canadiens 9-3-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 2nd · streak W5
No stances yet today on $CANADIENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Montreal Canadiens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New York Rangers 7-7-1
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 5th · streak L4
No stances yet today on $RANGERSNYR: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New York Rangers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers
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Model: Canadiens 54% to win. Projected score Canadiens 3.3, Rangers 3.2; spread even, total 6.5. Polymarket 54% for the Canadiens. Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers, Mon, Nov 16, 7:30 PM ET.