Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans prediction, odds and picks, November 19, 2026
- Projected winnerTexans 70%
- Projected scoreTexans 27, Colts 20
- Model spreadTexans −6.5 total 46.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Indianapolis Colts or Houston Texans: the bandwagon
Axle 30–70Market –
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | IND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | IND– | HOU– |
| Average win probability | IND– | HOU– |
| Longest scoring run | IND– | HOU– |
| Time leading | IND– | HOU– |
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans odds
Every stored line
| Stored | HOU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 70% | — |
- Ratings
- HOU 1516 · IND 1403
- Home spread
- −6.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Roofed venueforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Texans a 6.5-point favorite at home, with a 70% chance to win. The model total is 46.5. Ratings: Texans 1516 (15th of 32), Colts 1403 (26th). The Texans are 2-5 in the AFC South; the Colts are 2-6 in the AFC South. The Texans have won 2 of their last 5; the Colts 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Texans won 5, the Colts 1. The roster source lists 12 Texans and 8 Colts players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Indianapolis Colts
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Jacksonville Jaguars | L 7–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Vikings | L 10–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Titans | L 20–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Steelers | L 22–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Commanders | W 30–13 | – | – | matchup |
Houston Texans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New York Giants | L 21–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jacksonville Jaguars | W 34–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tennessee Titans | W 26–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Cowboys | L 30–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indianapolis Colts | L 17–19 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 17–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans | 30–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 20–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans | 20–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 29–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 23–19 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce WR, Cam Taylor-Britt CB, Arden Key DE, Micheal Clemons DE, Cameron Mitchell CB, Sean McKeon TE, D.J. Montgomery WR, Carson Towt TE
Houston Texans: Tank Dell WR, Graham Mertz QB, Jayden Higgins WR, Mario Edwards Jr. DT, E.J. Speed LB, British Brooks RB, Jake Hummel LB, Solomon Byrd DE, Ali Gaye DE, Dylan Horton DE, Sam Hagen G, K.C. Ossai LB
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Colts2-6 AFC South, 3rd · L4
- Colts rating1403 26th of 32, 8 games
- Texans2-5 AFC South, 2nd · L1
- Texans rating1516 15th of 32, 7 games
National Football League · AFC South · 3rd · streak L4
No stances yet today on $COLTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indianapolis Colts bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Houston Texans 2-5
National Football League · AFC South · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $TEXANS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Texans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Texans 70% to win. Projected score Texans 27, Colts 20; spread Texans −6.5, total 46.5. Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, Thu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET.