Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Wizards at Bulls: Bandwagon's model makes the Bulls a 56% favorite (Bulls −3.5).
Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Bulls a 56% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Bulls win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 56%.
The largest gap is 10 points: Axle has the Bulls at 56%, Polymarket at 46%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Bulls
All NBA ratings| WSH | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1295 28th of 30 | 1328 24th of 30 |
| Record | 4-7 | 1-8 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L7 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 56% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:37 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:17 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:53 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:37 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:25 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | — |
Wizards vs Bulls odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Bulls at 46%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | WSH | CHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 54% | 46% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 44% | 56% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulls a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 230. Ratings: Bulls 1328 (24th of 30), Wizards 1295 (28th). The Bulls are 1-8 in the Central; the Wizards are 4-7 in the Southeast. The Bulls have won 0 of their last 5; the Wizards 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bulls won 5, the Wizards 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Washington Wizards
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Detroit Pistons | L 111–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma City Thunder | L 75–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | L 132–139 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 105–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Magic | W 103–94 | – | – | matchup |
Chicago Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 121–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Knicks | L 105–135 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia 76ers | L 107–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Celtics | L 111–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Knicks | L 127–133 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls | 124–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards | 119–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards | 129–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls | 120–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls | 89–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls | 105–138 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Washington Wizards: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Chicago Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wizards4-7 Southeast, 3rd · L4
- Wizards rating1295 28th of 30, 11 games
- Bulls1-8 Central, 2nd · L7
- Bulls rating1328 24th of 30, 9 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 3rd · streak L4
No stances yet today on $WIZARDS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Wizards bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Chicago Bulls 1-8
National Basketball Association · Central · 2nd · streak L7
No stances yet today on $BULLS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Chicago Bulls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Bulls 56% to win. Projected score Bulls 117, Wizards 113; spread Bulls −3.5, total 230. Polymarket 46% for the Bulls. Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls, Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ET.