Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Thunder at Heat: Bandwagon's model makes the Thunder a 66% favorite (Thunder −3).
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Thunder a 66% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Thunder win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 66%.
The largest gap is 14 points: Axle has the Thunder at 66%, Polymarket at 52%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has the Thunder
All NBA ratings| OKC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1726 2nd of 30 | 1480 16th of 30 |
| Record | 8-2 | 5-6 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 5 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MIA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 34% | +3 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 31% | +2 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:27 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 29% | — |
Thunder vs Heat odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Thunder at 52%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 66%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | OKC | MIA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 52% | 48% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 66% | 34% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Thunder a 3-point favorite, with a 66% chance to win. The model total is 227. Ratings: Heat 1480 (16th of 30), Thunder 1726 (2nd). The Heat are 5-6 in the Southeast; the Thunder are 8-2 in the Northwest. The Heat have won 3 of their last 5; the Thunder 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Heat won 1, the Thunder 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Portland Trail Blazers | L 103–123 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Wizards | W 114–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 128–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W 124–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | W 117–112 | – | – | matchup |
Miami Heat
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Utah Jazz | W 115–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sacramento Kings | W 114–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Golden State Warriors | L 100–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LA Clippers | W 117–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Lakers | L 117–138 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat | 120–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder | 112–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder | 101–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat | 104–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder | 100–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat | 128–120 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Oklahoma City Thunder: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Miami Heat: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Thunder8-2 Northwest, 5th · W4
- Thunder rating1726 2nd of 30, 10 games
- Heat5-6 Southeast, 4th · W2
- Heat rating1480 16th of 30, 10 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 5th · streak W4
No stances yet today on $THUNDER: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oklahoma City Thunder bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Miami Heat 5-6
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 4th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $HEAT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Heat bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Thunder 66% to win. Projected score Thunder 115, Heat 112; spread Thunder −3, total 227. Polymarket 52% for the Thunder. Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat, Sun, Nov 22, 6:00 PM ET.