Sacramento Kings vs Los Angeles Lakers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Kings at Lakers: Bandwagon's model makes the Lakers an 87% favorite (Lakers −15).
Sacramento Kings vs Los Angeles Lakers model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Lakers a 87% chance to win, by about 15 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Lakers win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 87%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Axle has the Lakers at 87%, Polymarket at 81%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has the Lakers
All NBA ratings| SAC | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1300 26th of 30 | 1643 6th of 30 |
| Record | 1-10 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | W6 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | LAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:32 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 87% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:37 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:32 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:17 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:13 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:38 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:53 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:25 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 86% | — |
Kings vs Lakers odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Lakers at 81%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 87%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SAC | LAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 19% | 81% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 13% | 87% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Sacramento Kings vs Los Angeles Lakers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lakers a 15-point favorite at home, with a 87% chance to win. The model total is 231.5. Ratings: Lakers 1643 (6th of 30), Kings 1300 (26th). The Lakers are 10-2 in the Pacific; the Kings are 1-10 in the Pacific. The Lakers have won 5 of their last 5; the Kings 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lakers won 5, the Kings 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Sacramento Kings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Orlando Magic | L 100–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Heat | L 108–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Antonio Spurs | L 109–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Lakers | L 103–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | W 115–100 | – | – | matchup |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Atlanta Hawks | W 124–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Pistons | W 121–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Trail Blazers | W 124–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sacramento Kings | W 116–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Heat | W 138–117 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings | 116–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers | 110–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings | 127–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers | 104–128 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings | 112–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers | 101–125 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Sacramento Kings: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Los Angeles Lakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Kings1-10 Pacific, 1st · L4
- Kings rating1300 26th of 30, 10 games
- Lakers10-2 Pacific, 5th · W6
- Lakers rating1643 6th of 30, 12 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Sacramento Kings 1-10
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 1st · streak L4
No stances yet today on $KINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sacramento Kings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Los Angeles Lakers 10-2
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 5th · streak W6
No stances yet today on $LAKERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Los Angeles Lakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Lakers 87% to win. Projected score Lakers 123, Kings 108; spread Lakers −15, total 231.5. Polymarket 81% for the Lakers. Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers, Fri, Nov 20, 10:00 PM ET.