Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Bucks at 76ers: Bandwagon's model makes the 76ers an 85% favorite (76ers −13.5).
Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers model odds and win probability
Axle gives the 76ers a 85% chance to win, by about 14 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the 76ers win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 85%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Axle has the 76ers at 85%, Polymarket at 79%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the 76ers
All NBA ratings| MIL | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1296 27th of 30 | 1594 9th of 30 |
| Record | 1-10 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 games | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | PHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:32 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 85% | −2 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 87% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:27 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:37 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:32 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:17 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:38 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:53 PM ET | 86% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 85% | — |
Bucks vs 76ers odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the 76ers at 79%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 85%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MIL | PHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 21% | 79% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 15% | 85% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the 76ers a 13.5-point favorite at home, with a 85% chance to win. The model total is 225. Ratings: 76ers 1594 (9th of 30), Bucks 1296 (27th). The 76ers are 9-3 in the Atlantic; the Bucks are 1-10 in the Central. The 76ers have won 3 of their last 5; the Bucks 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the 76ers won 5, the Bucks 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Milwaukee Bucks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New York Knicks | L 85–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Celtics | L 97–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto Raptors | L 107–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Celtics | L 102–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Timberwolves | L 100–112 | – | – | matchup |
Philadelphia 76ers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Boston Celtics | L 101–123 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Bulls | W 127–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | L 95–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Pistons | W 112–106 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Bulls | W 126–107 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers | 116–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers | 106–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers | 122–139 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks | 116–101 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks | 123–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers | 126–113 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Milwaukee Bucks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Philadelphia 76ers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bucks1-10 Central, 1st · L7
- Bucks rating1296 27th of 30, 10 games
- 76ers9-3 Atlantic, 4th · L1
- 76ers rating1594 9th of 30, 11 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Milwaukee Bucks 1-10
National Basketball Association · Central · 1st · streak L7
No stances yet today on $BUCKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Milwaukee Bucks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Atlantic · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $76ERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia 76ers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: 76ers 85% to win. Projected score 76ers 119, Bucks 106; spread 76ers −13.5, total 225. Polymarket 79% for the 76ers. Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 PM ET.