Toulouse vs Lens prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Toulouse at Lens: Bandwagon's model makes Lens a 55% favorite (Lens −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 51%.
Toulouse vs Lens model odds and win probability
Axle gives Lens a 55% chance to win, with a 23% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Ligue 1 marketEach bar is the chance that Lens win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 55%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Axle has Lens at 55%, Kalshi at 51%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Lens
All Ligue 1 ratings| TOU | RCL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1449 9th of 18 | 1516 4th of 18 |
| Record | 3-3-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Last 5 games | 2-1-2 | 2-3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | RCL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:43 PM ET | 55% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 1:14 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:53 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 57% | — |
Toulouse vs Lens odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Lens at 51%, Polymarket at 51%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 55%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TOU | Draw | RCL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 25% | 24% | 51% | ||
| Polymarket | 25% | 24% | 51% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 22% | 23% | 55% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Toulouse vs Lens prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lens a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 55% chance to win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Lens 1516 (4th of 18), Toulouse 1449 (9th). The Lens are 4-5-1; the Toulouse are 3-3-4. The Lens have won 2 of their last 5; the Toulouse 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lens won 4, the Toulouse 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Toulouse
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Strasbourg | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marseille | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Troyes | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Le Mans | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AS Monaco | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Lens
Head-to-head
Injuries
Toulouse: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Lens: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Toulouse3-3-4 12th
- Toulouse rating1449 9th of 18, 10 games
- Lens4-5-1 11th
- Lens rating1516 4th of 18, 10 games
More Ligue 1 games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Toulouse 3-3-4
Ligue 1 · 12th
No stances yet today on $TOULOUSE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toulouse bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Lens 4-5-1
Ligue 1 · 11th
No stances yet today on $LENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Toulouse at Lens
Sign in to post a take on $TOULOUSELENS261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Lens 55% to win, draw 23%. Projected score Lens 1.8, Toulouse 1.2; spread Lens −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 51%, Polymarket 51% for Lens. Toulouse at Lens, Sat, Nov 21, 2:45 PM ET.