Lyon vs Lille prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Lyon at Lille: Bandwagon's model makes Lille a 52% favorite (Lille −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 41%.
Lyon vs Lille model odds and win probability
Axle gives Lille a 52% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Ligue 1 marketEach bar is the chance that Lille win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 52%.
The largest gap is 12 points: Axle has Lille at 52%, Polymarket at 40%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Lille
All Ligue 1 ratings| LYON | LILL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1499 5th of 18 | 1547 2nd of 18 |
| Record | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-1-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | LILL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:43 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:14 PM ET | 52% | +3 |
| Nov 8, 10:53 AM ET | 49% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 48% | — |
Lyon vs Lille odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Lille at 41%, Polymarket at 40% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 52%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LYON | Draw | LILL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 30% | 29% | 41% | ||
| Polymarket | 31% | 29% | 40% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 24% | 24% | 52% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Lyon vs Lille prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lille a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 52% chance to win and a 24% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Lille 1547 (2nd of 18), Lyon 1499 (5th). The Lille are 6-1-3; the Lyon are 5-3-2. The Lille have won 2 of their last 5; the Lyon 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lille won 1, the Lyon 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Lyon
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Brest | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Angers | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Paris Saint-Germain | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nice | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lens | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Lille
Head-to-head
Injuries
Lyon: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Lille: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lyon5-3-2 5th
- Lyon rating1499 5th of 18, 10 games
- Lille6-1-3 2nd
- Lille rating1547 2nd of 18, 10 games
More Ligue 1 games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Lyon 5-3-2
Ligue 1 · 5th
No stances yet today on $LYON: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lyon bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Lille 6-1-3
Ligue 1 · 2nd
No stances yet today on $LILLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lille bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Lyon at Lille
Sign in to post a take on $LYONLILLE261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Lille 52% to win, draw 24%. Projected score Lille 1.5, Lyon 1.0; spread Lille −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 41%, Polymarket 40% for Lille. Lyon at Lille, Sat, Nov 21, 2:45 PM ET.