Le Mans vs Marseille prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Le Mans at Marseille: Bandwagon's model makes Marseille a 69% favorite (Marseille −1); Kalshi prices them at 67%.
Le Mans vs Marseille model odds and win probability
Axle gives Marseille a 69% chance to win, by about 1.2 goals, with a 18% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Ligue 1 marketEach bar is the chance that Marseille win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 69%.
The largest gap is 2 points: Axle has Marseille at 69%, Kalshi at 67%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Marseille
All Ligue 1 ratings| MNS | OLM | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1369 15th of 18 | 1539 3rd of 18 |
| Record | 1-4-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 games | 0-3-2 | 5-0 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record and last 5 results are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | OLM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 69% | — |
Le Mans vs Marseille odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Marseille at 67%, Polymarket at 67%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 69%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MNS | Draw | OLM | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 14% | 19% | 67% | ||
| Polymarket | 14% | 19% | 67% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 13% | 18% | 69% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Le Mans vs Marseille prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Marseille a 1-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win and a 18% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Marseille 1539 (3rd of 18), Le Mans 1369 (15th). The Marseille are 6-4; the Le Mans are 1-4-5. The Marseille have won 5 of their last 5; the Le Mans 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Le Mans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs AS Monaco | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Troyes | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AJ Auxerre | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toulouse | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Paris Saint-Germain | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Marseille
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Le Mans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Marseille: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Le Mans1-4-5 15th
- Le Mans rating1369 15th of 18, 10 games
- Marseille6-4 4th
- Marseille rating1539 3rd of 18, 10 games
More Ligue 1 games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Le Mans 1-4-5
Ligue 1 · 15th
No stances yet today on $LEMANS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Le Mans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Marseille 6-4
Ligue 1 · 4th
No stances yet today on $MARSEILLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Marseille bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Le Mans at Marseille
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Marseille 69% to win, draw 18%. Projected score Marseille 2.1, Le Mans 0.9; spread Marseille −1, total 3. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 67% for Marseille. Le Mans at Marseille, Sun, Nov 22, 2:45 PM ET.