Brest vs Strasbourg prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Brest at Strasbourg: Bandwagon's model makes Strasbourg a 46% favorite (Strasbourg −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 43%.
Brest vs Strasbourg model odds and win probability
Axle gives Strasbourg a 46% chance to win, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Ligue 1 marketEach bar is the chance that Strasbourg win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 46%.
The largest gap is 3 points: Axle has Strasbourg at 46%, Kalshi at 43%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Strasbourg
All Ligue 1 ratings| BRE | STR | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1439 12th of 18 | 1444 10th of 18 |
| Record | 4-3-3 | 3-6-1 |
| Last 5 games | 3-1-1 | 1-4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | STR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:43 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:14 PM ET | 46% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 10:53 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 48% | — |
Brest vs Strasbourg odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Strasbourg at 43%, Polymarket at 44% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 46%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BRE | Draw | STR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 31% | 26% | 43% | ||
| Polymarket | 30% | 26% | 44% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 29% | 25% | 46% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Brest vs Strasbourg prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Strasbourg a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 46% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Strasbourg 1444 (10th of 18), Brest 1439 (12th). The Strasbourg are 3-6-1; the Brest are 4-3-3. The Strasbourg have won 1 of their last 5; the Brest 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Strasbourg won 1, the Brest 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Brest
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Lyon | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lorient | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nice | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lille | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Angers | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup |
Strasbourg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Toulouse | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AJ Auxerre | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stade Rennais | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Paris Saint-Germain | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nice | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg at Brest | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Brest at Strasbourg | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Brest at Strasbourg | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Strasbourg at Brest | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Brest at Strasbourg | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Strasbourg at Brest | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Brest: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Strasbourg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Brest4-3-3 9th
- Brest rating1439 12th of 18, 10 games
- Strasbourg3-6-1 13th
- Strasbourg rating1444 10th of 18, 10 games
More Ligue 1 games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Brest 4-3-3
Ligue 1 · 9th
No stances yet today on $BREST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Brest bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Strasbourg 3-6-1
Ligue 1 · 13th
No stances yet today on $STRASBOURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Strasbourg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Brest at Strasbourg
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Strasbourg 46% to win, draw 25%. Projected score Strasbourg 1.7, Brest 1.3; spread Strasbourg −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 43%, Polymarket 44% for Strasbourg. Brest at Strasbourg, Sat, Nov 21, 2:45 PM ET.