Angers vs Paris FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Angers at Paris FC: Bandwagon's model makes Paris FC a 71% favorite (Paris FC −1.5); Kalshi prices them at 72%.
Angers vs Paris FC model odds and win probability
Axle gives Paris FC a 71% chance to win, by about 1.3 goals, with a 17% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Ligue 1 marketEach bar is the chance that Paris FC win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 71%.
The largest gap is 2 points: Polymarket has Paris FC at 73%, Axle at 71%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Paris FC
All Ligue 1 ratings| ANG | PAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1310 18th of 18 | 1496 6th of 18 |
| Record | 2-6-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Last 5 games | 0-4-1 | 3-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | PAR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 71% | — |
Angers vs Paris FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Paris FC at 72%, Polymarket at 73% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 71%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ANG | Draw | PAR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 10% | 18% | 72% | ||
| Polymarket | 10% | 17% | 73% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 12% | 17% | 71% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Angers vs Paris FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Paris FC a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 71% chance to win and a 17% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Paris FC 1496 (6th of 18), Angers 1310 (18th). The Paris FC are 6-2-2; the Angers are 2-6-2. The Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5; the Angers 0 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Paris FC won 0, the Angers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Angers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Nice | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lyon | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lorient | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marseille | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Brest | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup |
Paris FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at AJ Auxerre | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AS Monaco | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lens | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stade Rennais | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lorient | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
Injuries
Angers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Paris FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Angers2-6-2 16th
- Angers rating1310 18th of 18, 10 games
- Paris FC6-2-2 3rd
- Paris FC rating1496 6th of 18, 10 games
More Ligue 1 games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Angers 2-6-2
Ligue 1 · 16th
No stances yet today on $ANGERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Angers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Paris FC 6-2-2
Ligue 1 · 3rd
No stances yet today on $PARISFC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Paris FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Angers at Paris FC
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Paris FC 71% to win, draw 17%. Projected score Paris FC 2.1, Angers 0.9; spread Paris FC −1.5, total 3. Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 73% for Paris FC. Angers at Paris FC, Sun, Nov 22, 9:00 AM ET.