French soccer, and it is 0-0 at 29' between Paris FC and AS Monaco. The model gives Paris FC 40 percent right now, so the numbers lean toward Monaco, and the crowd has cast zero picks so far.
Ligue 1 · · Stade Charléty · every Ligue 1 line
AS Monaco vs Paris FC: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreAS Monaco 1, Paris FC 3 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerParis FC 40%
- Pregame Projected scorelevel, 1.3 each draw 26%
- Model spreadeven total 2.5
- Margin2 projected 0
- Total4 projected 2.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
AS Monaco or Paris FC: the bandwagon
Axle 34–40Market –
FinalPregame: PAR 53%Baseline: PAR 76.9% (+23.9)Big swing: 28.9 ptsClutch window: 8:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MON | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| PAR | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
MON 55.8%PAR 44.2%
AS Monaco at Paris FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.1 points for PAR over the last 10:00
Big swing28.9 ptstoward PAR at 39:00 of game time
Clutch window8:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselinePAR 76.9%game average, +23.9 points from the pregame 53.0%
AS Monaco vs Paris FC live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MON | PAR |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | MON55.8% | PAR44.2% |
| Shots | MON9 | PAR19 |
| Shots on target | MON2 | PAR10 |
| Corners | MON2 | PAR3 |
| Passes completed | MON573/649 | PAR436/506 |
| Saves | MON7 | PAR2 |
| Fouls | MON15 | PAR13 |
| Offsides | MON1 | PAR1 |
| Yellow cards | MON2 | PAR2 |
| Red cards | MON0 | PAR0 |
AS Monaco vs Paris FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MON | PAR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MON1 | PAR3 |
| Average win probability | MON23% | PAR77% |
| Longest scoring run | MON+1 | PAR+2 |
| Time leading | MON0:00 | PAR51:00 |
AS Monaco vs Paris FC odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 1:08 PM ET
AS Monaco34%
Win chanceParis FC40%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total2.5
Moneyline+195away / +281draw / +151homeaway / draw / home
Line movementPAR win chance, 13 stored lines
−5 pts for PAR between Oct 29 and Nov 1
50%34%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | PAR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 1:08 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:08 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:59 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 40% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 45% | — |
- Ratings
- PAR 1472 · MON 1506
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 1:08 PM ET · 2026-11-01 18:08 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: AS Monaco 1, Paris FC 3. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
AS MonacoParis FC
Neutrals only–
AS MonacoParis FC
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Paris FC–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
AS Monaco vs Paris FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Paris FC the favorite, with a 40% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Paris FC 1487 (8th of 18), AS Monaco 1491 (6th). The Paris FC are 5-2-2; the AS Monaco are 4-2-3. The Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5; the AS Monaco 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Paris FC won 2, the AS Monaco 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
AS Monaco
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Paris FC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lille | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lorient | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toulouse | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lens | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Paris FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs AS Monaco | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lens | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stade Rennais | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lorient | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Strasbourg | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
Injuries
AS Monaco: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Paris FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- AS Monaco4-2-3 7th
- AS Monaco rating1491 6th of 18, 9 games
- Paris FC5-2-2 4th
- Paris FC rating1487 8th of 18, 9 games
AS Monaco 4-2-3
Ligue 1 · 7th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MONACO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MONACO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MONACO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MONACO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the AS Monaco bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Paris FC 5-2-2
Ligue 1 · 4th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PARISFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PARISFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PARISFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PARISFC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Paris FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on AS Monaco at Paris FC
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