AJ Auxerre vs AS Monaco prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
AJ Auxerre at AS Monaco: Bandwagon's model makes AS Monaco a 62% favorite (AS Monaco −1); Kalshi prices them at 70%.
AJ Auxerre vs AS Monaco model odds and win probability
Axle gives AS Monaco a 61% chance to win, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Ligue 1 marketEach bar is the chance that AS Monaco win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 61%.
The largest gap is 9 points: Kalshi has AS Monaco at 70%, Axle at 61%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has AS Monaco
All Ligue 1 ratings| AUX | MON | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1375 14th of 18 | 1490 7th of 18 |
| Record | 3-6-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Last 5 games | 1-3-1 | 0-2-3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MON win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:43 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:14 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:53 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 62% | — |
AJ Auxerre vs AS Monaco odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices AS Monaco at 70%, Polymarket at 70%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 62%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | AUX | Draw | MON | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 12% | 18% | 70% | ||
| Polymarket | 12% | 18% | 70% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 18% | 21% | 62% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
AJ Auxerre vs AS Monaco prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the AS Monaco a 1-point favorite at home, with a 62% chance to win and a 21% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: AS Monaco 1490 (7th of 18), AJ Auxerre 1375 (14th). The AS Monaco are 4-2-4; the AJ Auxerre are 3-6-1. The AS Monaco have won 0 of their last 5; the AJ Auxerre 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the AS Monaco won 5, the AJ Auxerre 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
AJ Auxerre
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Paris FC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Strasbourg | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Le Mans | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Le Havre AC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stade Rennais | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup |
AS Monaco
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre at AS Monaco | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| AS Monaco at AJ Auxerre | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| AJ Auxerre at AS Monaco | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| AS Monaco at AJ Auxerre | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| AJ Auxerre at AS Monaco | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| AS Monaco at AJ Auxerre | 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
AJ Auxerre: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
AS Monaco: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- AJ Auxerre3-6-1 14th
- AJ Auxerre rating1375 14th of 18, 10 games
- AS Monaco4-2-4 7th
- AS Monaco rating1490 7th of 18, 10 games
More Ligue 1 games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
AJ Auxerre 3-6-1
Ligue 1 · 14th
No stances yet today on $AUXERRE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the AJ Auxerre bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
AS Monaco 4-2-4
Ligue 1 · 7th
No stances yet today on $MONACO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the AS Monaco bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on AJ Auxerre at AS Monaco
Sign in to post a take on $AUXERREMONACO261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: AS Monaco 62% to win, draw 21%. Projected score AS Monaco 1.9, AJ Auxerre 1.1; spread AS Monaco −1, total 3. Kalshi 70%, Polymarket 70% for AS Monaco. AJ Auxerre at AS Monaco, Sat, Nov 21, 2:45 PM ET.