Elche vs Levante prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Elche at Levante: Bandwagon's model makes Levante a 46% favorite (Levante −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 45%.
Elche vs Levante model odds and win probability
Axle gives Levante a 46% chance to win, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every La Liga marketEach bar is the chance that Levante win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 46%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Axle has Levante at 46%, Kalshi at 45%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Levante
All La Liga ratings| ELC | LEV | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1384 17th of 20 | 1388 15th of 20 |
| Record | 2-6-4 | 2-5-5 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 1-2-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | LEV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | — |
Elche vs Levante odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Levante at 45%, Polymarket at 45%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 46%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ELC | Draw | LEV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 30% | 25% | 45% | ||
| Polymarket | 29% | 26% | 45% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 26% | 28% | 46% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Elche vs Levante prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Levante a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 46% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Levante 1388 (15th of 20), Elche 1384 (17th). The Levante are 2-5-5; the Elche are 2-6-4. The Levante have won 1 of their last 5; the Elche 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Levante won 1, the Elche 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Elche
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Real Betis | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Valencia | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Villarreal | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Celta Vigo | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Levante
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Celta Vigo | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlético Madrid | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Sociedad | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Athletic Club | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Deportivo | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
Injuries
Elche: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Levante: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Elche2-6-4 18th
- Elche rating1384 17th of 20, 12 games
- Levante2-5-5 17th
- Levante rating1388 15th of 20, 12 games
More La Liga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Elche 2-6-4
La Liga · 18th
No stances yet today on $ELCHE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Elche bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Levante 2-5-5
La Liga · 17th
No stances yet today on $LEVANTE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Levante bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Elche at Levante
Sign in to post a take on $ELCHELEVANTE261123: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Levante 46% to win, draw 28%. Projected score Levante 1.4, Elche 1.1; spread Levante −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 45%, Polymarket 45% for Levante. Elche at Levante, Mon, Nov 23, 3:00 PM ET.