Nottingham Forest vs AFC Bournemouth prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Nottingham Forest at AFC Bournemouth: Bandwagon's model makes AFC Bournemouth a 56% favorite (AFC Bournemouth −1); Kalshi prices them at 48%.
Nottingham Forest vs AFC Bournemouth model odds and win probability
Axle gives AFC Bournemouth a 56% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every EPL marketEach bar is the chance that AFC Bournemouth win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 56%.
The largest gap is 8 points: Axle has AFC Bournemouth at 56%, Kalshi at 48%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has AFC Bournemouth
All EPL ratings| NFO | BOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1417 12th of 20 | 1503 5th of 20 |
| Record | 2-5-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Last 5 games | 1-3-1 | 4-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BOU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:03 AM ET | 56% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 10:58 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | — |
Nottingham Forest vs AFC Bournemouth odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi prices AFC Bournemouth at 48%, Polymarket at 48%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NFO | Draw | BOU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 25% | 27% | 48% | ||
| Polymarket | 25% | 27% | 48% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 24% | 56% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Nottingham Forest vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the AFC Bournemouth a 1-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win and a 24% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: AFC Bournemouth 1503 (5th of 20), Nottingham Forest 1417 (12th). The AFC Bournemouth are 4-3-3; the Nottingham Forest are 2-5-3. The AFC Bournemouth have won 4 of their last 5; the Nottingham Forest 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the AFC Bournemouth won 3, the Nottingham Forest 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Nottingham Forest
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Manchester City | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Brentford | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ipswich Town | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arsenal | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Crystal Palace | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
AFC Bournemouth
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Ipswich Town | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Leeds United | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Manchester United | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sunderland | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chelsea | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth at Nottingham Forest | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nottingham Forest at AFC Bournemouth | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nottingham Forest at AFC Bournemouth | 0–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| AFC Bournemouth at Nottingham Forest | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nottingham Forest at AFC Bournemouth | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| AFC Bournemouth at Nottingham Forest | 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Nottingham Forest: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
AFC Bournemouth: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Nottingham Forest2-5-3 16th
- Nottingham Forest rating1417 12th of 20, 10 games
- AFC Bournemouth4-3-3 7th
- AFC Bournemouth rating1503 5th of 20, 10 games
More EPL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Nottingham Forest 2-5-3
Premier League · 16th
No stances yet today on $NOTTMFOREST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nottingham Forest bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
AFC Bournemouth 4-3-3
Premier League · 7th
No stances yet today on $BOURNEMOUTH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the AFC Bournemouth bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Nottingham Forest at AFC Bournemouth
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: AFC Bournemouth 56% to win, draw 24%. Projected score AFC Bournemouth 1.6, Nottingham Forest 0.9; spread AFC Bournemouth −1, total 2.5. Kalshi 48%, Polymarket 48% for AFC Bournemouth. Nottingham Forest at AFC Bournemouth, Sat, Nov 21, 10:00 AM ET.