Leeds United vs Chelsea prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Leeds United at Chelsea: Bandwagon's model makes Chelsea a 45% favorite (Chelsea −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 52%.
Leeds United vs Chelsea model odds and win probability
Axle gives Chelsea a 45% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every EPL marketEach bar is the chance that Chelsea win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 45%.
The largest gap is 7 points: Kalshi has Chelsea at 52%, Axle at 45%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Chelsea
All EPL ratings| LEE | CHE | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1445 11th of 20 | 1445 10th of 20 |
| Record | 3-2-5 | 5-4-1 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 3-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CHE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:03 AM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 10:58 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | — |
Leeds United vs Chelsea odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi prices Chelsea at 52%, Polymarket at 51% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 45%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LEE | Draw | CHE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 23% | 25% | 52% | ||
| Polymarket | 23% | 26% | 51% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 27% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Leeds United vs Chelsea prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Chelsea a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 45% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Chelsea 1445 (10th of 20), Leeds United 1445 (11th). The Chelsea are 5-4-1; the Leeds United are 3-2-5. The Chelsea have won 3 of their last 5; the Leeds United 1 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Chelsea won 1, the Leeds United 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Leeds United
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Tottenham Hotspur | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AFC Bournemouth | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sunderland | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manchester United | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arsenal | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Chelsea
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sunderland | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manchester United | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tottenham Hotspur | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Everton | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AFC Bournemouth | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United at Chelsea | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chelsea at Leeds United | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Leeds United at Chelsea | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chelsea at Leeds United | 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Leeds United: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Chelsea: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Leeds United3-2-5 9th
- Leeds United rating1445 11th of 20, 10 games
- Chelsea5-4-1 5th
- Chelsea rating1445 10th of 20, 10 games
More EPL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Leeds United 3-2-5
Premier League · 9th
No stances yet today on $LEEDS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Leeds United bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Chelsea 5-4-1
Premier League · 5th
No stances yet today on $CHELSEA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Chelsea bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Leeds United at Chelsea
Sign in to post a take on $LEEDSCHELSEA261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Chelsea 45% to win, draw 27%. Projected score Chelsea 1.4, Leeds United 1.1; spread Chelsea −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 52%, Polymarket 51% for Chelsea. Leeds United at Chelsea, Sat, Nov 21, 10:00 AM ET.