Fulham vs Manchester City prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Fulham at Manchester City: Bandwagon's model makes Manchester City a 67% favorite (Manchester City −1); Kalshi prices them at 67%.
Fulham vs Manchester City model odds and win probability
Axle gives Manchester City a 67% chance to win, by about 1.2 goals, with a 20% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every EPL marketEach bar is the chance that Manchester City win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 67%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Polymarket has Manchester City at 68%, Axle at 67%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Manchester City
All EPL ratings| FUL | MNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1414 13th of 20 | 1581 2nd of 20 |
| Record | 2-4-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 games | 2-1-2 | 2-3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 6 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MNC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:58 AM ET | 67% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 66% | — |
Fulham vs Manchester City odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi prices Manchester City at 67%, Polymarket at 68% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 67%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | FUL | Draw | MNC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 15% | 18% | 67% | ||
| Polymarket | 13% | 19% | 68% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 14% | 20% | 67% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Fulham vs Manchester City prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Manchester City a 1-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win and a 20% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Manchester City 1581 (2nd of 20), Fulham 1414 (13th). The Manchester City are 7-3; the Fulham are 2-4-4. The Manchester City have won 2 of their last 5; the Fulham 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Manchester City won 6, the Fulham 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Fulham
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Newcastle United | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Aston Villa | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coventry City | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hull City | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ipswich Town | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Manchester City
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Nottingham Forest | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at RB Leipzig | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brighton & Hove Albion | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Aston Villa | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ipswich Town | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham at Manchester City | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Manchester City at Fulham | 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Manchester City at Fulham | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fulham at Manchester City | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Manchester City at Fulham | 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fulham at Manchester City | 1–5 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Fulham: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Manchester City: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Fulham2-4-4 15th
- Fulham rating1414 13th of 20, 10 games
- Manchester City7-3 3rd
- Manchester City rating1581 2nd of 20, 10 games
More EPL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Fulham 2-4-4
Premier League · 15th
No stances yet today on $FULHAM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fulham bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Manchester City 7-3
Premier League · 3rd
No stances yet today on $MANCITY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Manchester City bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Fulham at Manchester City
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Manchester City 67% to win, draw 20%. Projected score Manchester City 1.9, Fulham 0.6; spread Manchester City −1, total 2.5. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 68% for Manchester City. Fulham at Manchester City, Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 AM ET.