Everton vs Brentford prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Everton at Brentford: Bandwagon's model makes Brentford a 45% favorite (Brentford −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 46%.
Everton vs Brentford model odds and win probability
Axle gives Brentford a 45% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every EPL marketEach bar is the chance that Brentford win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 45%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Kalshi has Brentford at 46%, Axle at 45%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Brentford
All EPL ratings| EVE | BRE | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1446 9th of 20 | 1449 8th of 20 |
| Record | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Last 5 games | 2-2-1 | 1-2-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BRE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | — |
Everton vs Brentford odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi prices Brentford at 46%, Polymarket at 46%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 45%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | EVE | Draw | BRE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 28% | 26% | 46% | ||
| Polymarket | 28% | 26% | 46% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 27% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Everton vs Brentford prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Brentford a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 45% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Brentford 1449 (8th of 20), Everton 1446 (9th). The Brentford are 3-2-5; the Everton are 4-2-4. The Brentford have won 1 of their last 5; the Everton 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Brentford won 1, the Everton 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Everton
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Coventry City | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Newcastle United | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arsenal | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chelsea | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hull City | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Brentford
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Brighton & Hove Albion | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hull City | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Liverpool | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Aston Villa | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
Injuries
Everton: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Brentford: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Everton4-2-4 6th
- Everton rating1446 9th of 20, 10 games
- Brentford3-2-5 8th
- Brentford rating1449 8th of 20, 10 games
More EPL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Everton 4-2-4
Premier League · 6th
No stances yet today on $EVERTON: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Everton bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Brentford 3-2-5
Premier League · 8th
No stances yet today on $BRENTFORD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Brentford bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Everton at Brentford
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Brentford 45% to win, draw 27%. Projected score Brentford 1.4, Everton 1.1; spread Brentford −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 46%, Polymarket 46% for Brentford. Everton at Brentford, Mon, Nov 23, 3:00 PM ET.