Arsenal vs Newcastle United prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Arsenal at Newcastle United: Bandwagon's model makes Arsenal a 57% favorite (Arsenal −1); Kalshi prices them at 63%.
Arsenal vs Newcastle United model odds and win probability
Axle gives Arsenal a 57% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every EPL marketEach bar is the chance that Arsenal win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 57%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Kalshi has Arsenal at 63%, Axle at 57%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Arsenal
All EPL ratings| ARS | NEW | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1635 1st of 20 | 1413 14th of 20 |
| Record | 9-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Last 5 games | 4-0-1 | 1-3-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | NEW win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:58 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | — |
Arsenal vs Newcastle United odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi prices Arsenal at 63%, Polymarket at 61% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ARS | Draw | NEW | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 63% | 22% | 15% | ||
| Polymarket | 61% | 22% | 17% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 57% | 24% | 19% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Arsenal vs Newcastle United prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Arsenal a 1-point favorite, with a 57% chance to win and a 24% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Newcastle United 1413 (14th of 20), Arsenal 1635 (1st). The Newcastle United are 3-4-3; the Arsenal are 9-1. The Newcastle United have won 1 of their last 5; the Arsenal 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Newcastle United won 2, the Arsenal 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Arsenal
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Hull City | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Liverpool | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Everton | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayern Munich | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Newcastle United
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Fulham | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Everton | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Crystal Palace | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Aston Villa | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coventry City | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United at Arsenal | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arsenal at Newcastle United | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Newcastle United at Arsenal | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arsenal at Newcastle United | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Newcastle United at Arsenal | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arsenal at Newcastle United | 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Arsenal: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Newcastle United: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Arsenal9-1 1st
- Arsenal rating1635 1st of 20, 10 games
- Newcastle United3-4-3 12th
- Newcastle United rating1413 14th of 20, 10 games
More EPL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Arsenal 9-1
Premier League · 1st
No stances yet today on $ARSENAL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arsenal bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Newcastle United 3-4-3
Premier League · 12th
No stances yet today on $NEWCASTLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Newcastle United bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arsenal at Newcastle United
Sign in to post a take on $ARSENALNEWCASTLE261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Arsenal 57% to win, draw 24%. Projected score Arsenal 1.7, Newcastle United 0.8; spread Arsenal −1, total 2.5. Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 61% for Arsenal. Arsenal at Newcastle United, Sat, Nov 21, 12:30 PM ET.