Liverpool have the edge in the model at 32 percent for the home side, with the draw and Arsenal sitting behind it at 3 minutes and 0-0. The crowd has not picked yet, so there is no supporter number to set against it.
Premier League · · Anfield · every Premier League line
Arsenal vs Liverpool: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreArsenal 1, Liverpool 0 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerArsenal 40%
- Pregame Projected scorelevel, 1.3 each draw 28%
- Model spreadeven total 2.5
- Margin1 projected 0
- Total1 projected 2.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Arsenal or Liverpool: the bandwagon
Axle 40–32Market 40–33
FinalPregame: LIV 46%Baseline: LIV 19.4% (−26.4)Big swing: 24.7 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARS | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LIV | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
ARS 43.6%LIV 56.4%
Arsenal at Liverpool win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to ARS−4.0 points for LIV over the last 10:00
Big swing24.7 ptstoward ARS at 17:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineLIV 19.4%game average, −26.4 points from the pregame 45.8%
Arsenal vs Liverpool live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ARS | LIV |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | ARS43.6% | LIV56.4% |
| Shots | ARS10 | LIV17 |
| Shots on target | ARS3 | LIV0 |
| Corners | ARS4 | LIV7 |
| Passes completed | ARS270/371 | LIV378/461 |
| Saves | ARS0 | LIV2 |
| Fouls | ARS10 | LIV18 |
| Offsides | ARS3 | LIV2 |
| Yellow cards | ARS4 | LIV3 |
| Red cards | ARS0 | LIV0 |
Arsenal vs Liverpool team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ARS | LIV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ARS1 | LIV0 |
| Average win probability | ARS81% | LIV19% |
| Longest scoring run | ARS+1 | LIV+0 |
| Time leading | ARS73:00 | LIV0:00 |
Arsenal vs Liverpool model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET
Arsenal40%
Win chanceLiverpool32%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total2.5
Moneyline+149away / +257draw / +214homeaway / draw / home
Line movementLIV win chance, 12 stored lines
+3 pts for LIV between Oct 28 and Nov 1
37%23%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | LIV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:02 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:26 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:01 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:56 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 32% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 29% | — |
- Ratings
- LIV 1523 · ARS 1622
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 2 picks
Be the first on the bandwagon
ArsenalLiverpool
Neutrals only–
ArsenalLiverpool
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Liverpool–
2 picks so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Arsenal vs Liverpool odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi had Arsenal at 40% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 40% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 40% when last read, .
| Source | ARS | Draw | LIV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 40% | 27% | 33% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 40% | 27% | 33% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 40% | 28% | 32% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, LIV: +1Polymarket minus model, LIV: +1
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Arsenal the favorite, with a 40% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Liverpool 1513 (4th of 20), Arsenal 1631 (1st). The Liverpool are 4-2-3; the Arsenal are 8-1. The Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5; the Arsenal 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Liverpool won 1, the Arsenal 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Arsenal
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Liverpool | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Everton | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayern Munich | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lille | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup |
Liverpool
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Arsenal | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Villarreal | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Brentford | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manchester City | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
Injuries
Arsenal: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Liverpool: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Arsenal8-1 1st
- Arsenal rating1631 1st of 20, 9 games
- Liverpool4-2-3 5th
- Liverpool rating1513 4th of 20, 9 games
Arsenal 8-1
Premier League · 1st
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ARSENAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ARSENAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ARSENAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ARSENAL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arsenal bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Liverpool 4-2-3
Premier League · 5th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LIVERPOOL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LIVERPOOL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LIVERPOOL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LIVERPOOL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Liverpool bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arsenal at Liverpool
Sign in to post a take on $ARSENALLIVERPOOL261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0. Bandwagon's model had the Arsenal at 40% and projected level, 1.3 each; spread even, total 2.5. Last read: Kalshi 40%, Polymarket 40% for Arsenal.