Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerIowa 92%
- Projected scoreIowa 38, Purdue 14
- Model spreadIowa −24.5 total 51.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Purdue Boilermakers or Iowa Hawkeyes: the bandwagon
Axle 8–92Market 33–67
Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PUR– | IOWA– |
| Average win probability | PUR– | IOWA– |
| Longest scoring run | PUR– | IOWA– |
| Time leading | PUR– | IOWA– |
Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | IOWA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 92% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 91% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 90% | — |
- Ratings
- IOWA 1684 · PUR 1391
- Home spread
- −24.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Purdue vs Iowa odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Hawkeyes at 84%, Polymarket at 50% (34 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 92%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PUR | IOWA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 16% | 84% | ||
| Polymarket | 50% | 50% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 8% | 92% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hawkeyes a 24.5-point favorite at home, with a 92% chance to win. The model total is 51.5. Ratings: Hawkeyes 1684 (16th of 138), Boilermakers 1391 (106th). The Hawkeyes have won 3 of their last 5; the Boilermakers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Hawkeyes won 2, the Boilermakers 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Purdue Boilermakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Penn State Nittany Lions | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Huskies | L 26–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Golden Gophers | W 41–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Illinois Fighting Illini | W 24–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 10–49 | – | – | matchup |
Iowa Hawkeyes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Wisconsin Badgers | W 30–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 10–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | W 41–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | L 14–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | W 20–19 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes | 14–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers | 24–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Purdue Boilermakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Iowa Hawkeyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Boilermakers– 15th · L2
- Boilermakers rating1391 106th of 138, 7 games
- Hawkeyes– 5th · W1
- Hawkeyes rating1684 16th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 15th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $PUR: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Purdue Boilermakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $IOWA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Iowa Hawkeyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Iowa 92% to win. Projected score Iowa 38, Purdue 14; spread Iowa −24.5, total 51.5. Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 50% for Iowa. Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM ET.