UC San Diego Tritons vs Utah State Aggies prediction, odds and picks, November 13, 2026
- Projected winnerUtah State 77%
- Projected scoreUtah State 77, UC San Diego 68
- Model spreadUtah State −9 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UC San Diego Tritons or Utah State Aggies: the bandwagon
Axle 23–77Market –
UC San Diego Tritons at Utah State Aggies win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
UC San Diego Tritons vs Utah State Aggies live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
UC San Diego Tritons vs Utah State Aggies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UCSD | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UCSD– | USU– |
| Average win probability | UCSD– | USU– |
| Longest scoring run | UCSD– | USU– |
| Time leading | UCSD– | USU– |
UC San Diego Tritons vs Utah State Aggies odds
Every stored line
| Stored | USU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:25 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 77% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:51 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 76% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 79% | — |
- Ratings
- USU 1652 · UCSD 1559
- Home spread
- −9
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UC San Diego Tritons vs Utah State Aggies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aggies a 9-point favorite at home, with a 77% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Aggies 1652 (19th of 361), Tritons 1559 (79th). The Aggies are 1-0; the Tritons are 1-0. The Aggies have won 4 of their last 5; the Tritons 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Aggies won 0, the Tritons 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UC San Diego Tritons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Cal State Northridge Matadors | L 70–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cal Poly Mustangs | W 72–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | W 64–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cal State Fullerton Titans | L 71–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cal Poly Mustangs | W 80–64 | – | – | matchup |
Utah State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Idaho State Bengals | W 94–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 66–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Villanova Wildcats | W 86–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego State Aztecs | W 73–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nevada Wolf Pack | W 79–66 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego Tritons at Utah State Aggies | 75–73 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UC San Diego Tritons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Utah State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Tritons1-0 5th · W1
- Tritons rating1559 79th of 361, 0 games
- Aggies1-0 7th · W1
- Aggies rating1652 19th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UCSDMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UC San Diego Tritons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $USUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Utah State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Utah State 77% to win. Projected score Utah State 77, UC San Diego 68; spread Utah State −9, total 145.5. UC San Diego Tritons at Utah State Aggies, Fri, Nov 13, 10:00 PM ET.