UAlbany Great Danes vs Mercyhurst Lakers prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
UAlbany at Mercyhurst: Bandwagon's model makes Mercyhurst a 55% favorite (Mercyhurst −2.5).
UAlbany Great Danes vs Mercyhurst Lakers odds and win probability
Axle gives Mercyhurst a 55% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Mercyhurst
All CBB ratings| UALB | MERC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1416 297th of 365 | 1433 275th of 365 |
| Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MERC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 55% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:48 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 56% | — |
UAlbany Great Danes vs Mercyhurst Lakers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lakers a 2.5-point favorite, with a 55% chance to win. The model total is 142. Ratings: Lakers 1433 (275th of 365), Great Danes 1416 (297th). The Lakers are 1-2; the Great Danes are 2-1. The Lakers have won 2 of their last 5; the Great Danes 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UAlbany Great Danes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Merrimack Warriors | L 60–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Manhattan Jaspers | W 72–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UMass Lowell River Hawks | L 76–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vermont Catamounts | L 56–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Hampshire Wildcats | W 84–61 | – | – | matchup |
Mercyhurst Lakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 56–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marquette Golden Eagles | L 43–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Long Island University Sharks | L 70–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stonehill Skyhawks | W 56–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | W 70–61 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UAlbany Great Danes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Mercyhurst Lakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Great Danes2-1 4th · L1
- Great Danes rating1416 297th of 365, 2 games
- Lakers1-2 5th · W1
- Lakers rating1433 275th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UALBMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UAlbany Great Danes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MERCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mercyhurst Lakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UAlbany Great Danes at Mercyhurst Lakers
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Mercyhurst 55% to win. Projected score Mercyhurst 72, UAlbany 70; spread Mercyhurst −2.5, total 142. UAlbany Great Danes at Mercyhurst Lakers, Sun, Nov 22, 3:30 PM ET.