Sam Houston Bearkats vs Boise State Broncos prediction, odds and picks, November 20, 2026
Sam Houston at Boise State: Bandwagon's model makes Boise State a 72% favorite (Boise State −7.5).
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Boise State Broncos odds and win probability
Axle gives Boise State a 72% chance to win, by about 7 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Boise State
All CBB ratings| SHSU | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1536 122nd of 365 | 1586 61st of 365 |
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BOIS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:38 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 12:27 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:03 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:23 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 72% | +2 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:07 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:22 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:04 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:59 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:50 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:44 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:19 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:04 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:09 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:14 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:09 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 70% | — |
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Boise State Broncos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 7.5-point favorite at home, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 150.5. Ratings: Broncos 1586 (61st of 365), Bearkats 1536 (122nd). The Broncos are 2-0; the Bearkats are 1-1. The Broncos have won 4 of their last 5; the Bearkats 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Sam Houston Bearkats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Alabama Crimson Tide | L 74–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | L 83–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | L 73–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico State Aggies | W 69–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Liberty Flames | L 72–79 | – | – | matchup |
Boise State Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Butler Bulldogs | W 100–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | L 74–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | W 78–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego State Aztecs | W 86–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | W 69–53 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Sam Houston Bearkats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Boise State Broncos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bearkats1-1 10th · W1
- Bearkats rating1536 122nd of 365, 1 games
- Broncos2-0 4th · W2
- Broncos rating1586 61st of 365, 1 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SHSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sam Houston Bearkats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $BOISMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Boise State Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sam Houston Bearkats at Boise State Broncos
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Boise State 72% to win. Projected score Boise State 79, Sam Houston 72; spread Boise State −7.5, total 150.5. Sam Houston Bearkats at Boise State Broncos, Fri, Nov 20, 9:00 PM ET.