Duquesne Dukes lead Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 4-0 with 17:40 left in the first. The house model has the Dukes at 72% at this early point, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs Duquesne Dukes: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scorePurdue Fort Wayne 71, Duquesne 78 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerDuquesne 72%
- Pregame Projected scoreDuquesne 76, Purdue Fort Wayne 69
- Model spreadDuquesne −7.5 total 145.5
- Margin7 projected 7.3
- Total149 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons or Duquesne Dukes: the bandwagon
Axle 28–72Market –
FinalPregame: DUQ 72%Baseline: DUQ 73.8% (+2.0)Big swing: 27.0 ptsClutch window: 17:58
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| PFW | 37 | 34 | 71 |
| DUQ | 36 | 42 | 78 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Duquesne Dukes win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to DUQ+35.4 points for DUQ over the last 5:00
Big swing27.0 ptstoward DUQ at 33:52 of game time
Clutch window17:58within 5 points in the final half
BaselineDUQ 73.8%game average, +2.0 points from the pregame 71.7%
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs Duquesne Dukes live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | PFW | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | PFW24/61 | DUQ29/55 |
| 3-pointers | PFW13/26 | DUQ5/16 |
| Free throws | PFW10/12 | DUQ15/20 |
| Rebounds | PFW28 | DUQ37 |
| Assists | PFW16 | DUQ18 |
| Turnovers | PFW14 | DUQ15 |
| Steals | PFW6 | DUQ8 |
| Blocks | PFW2 | DUQ4 |
| Points in the paint | PFW20 | DUQ46 |
| Fast-break points | PFW11 | DUQ16 |
| Fouls | PFW18 | DUQ15 |
| Largest lead | PFW6 | DUQ14 |
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs Duquesne Dukes team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | PFW | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PFW71 | DUQ78 |
| Average win probability | PFW26% | DUQ74% |
| Longest scoring run | PFW+5 | DUQ+14 |
| Time leading | PFW10:03 | DUQ23:27 |
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs Duquesne Dukes odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET
Mastodons28%
Win chanceDukes72%
SpreadDUQ −7.5closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+254away / −254homeaway / home
Line movementDUQ win chance, 35 stored lines
+7 pts for DUQ between Oct 29 and Nov 3
79%60%
Oct 29Nov 1Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | DUQ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:46 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:03 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 72% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 74% | +9 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- DUQ 1510 · PFW 1462
- Home spread
- −7.5
- Stored
- Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET · 2026-11-04 01:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 71, Duquesne Dukes 78. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
MastodonsDukes
Neutrals only–
MastodonsDukes
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Dukes–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs Duquesne Dukes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Dukes a 7.5-point favorite at home, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Dukes 1518 (146th of 361), Mastodons 1454 (249th). The Dukes are 1-0; the Mastodons are 0-1. The Dukes have won 3 of their last 5; the Mastodons 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Duquesne Dukes | L 71–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Green Bay Phoenix | L 56–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| at IU Indianapolis Jaguars | W 87–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wright State Raiders | L 70–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland State Vikings | W 92–86 | – | – | matchup |
Duquesne Dukes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | W 78–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at VCU Rams | L 66–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rhode Island Rams | W 67–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Richmond Spiders | W 79–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rhode Island Rams | L 52–64 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Duquesne Dukes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mastodons0-1 10th · L1
- Mastodons rating1454 249th of 361, 1 games
- Dukes1-0 3rd · W1
- Dukes rating1518 146th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PFWMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PFWMBB
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PFWMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PFWMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Duquesne Dukes 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $DUQMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $DUQMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $DUQMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $DUQMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Duquesne Dukes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Duquesne Dukes
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Final: Purdue Fort Wayne 71, Duquesne 78. Bandwagon's model had the Duquesne at 72% and projected Duquesne 76, Purdue Fort Wayne 69; spread Duquesne −7.5, total 145.5.