New Mexico Lobos vs Wichita State Shockers prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
New Mexico at Wichita State: Bandwagon's model makes Wichita State a 59% favorite (Wichita State −3.5).
New Mexico Lobos vs Wichita State Shockers odds and win probability
Axle gives Wichita State a 59% chance to win, by about 4 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Wichita State
All CBB ratings| UNM | WICH | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1631 33rd of 365 | 1585 62nd of 365 |
| Record | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | WICH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:18 PM ET | 59% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 60% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 59% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:18 PM ET | 60% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 59% | −3 |
| Nov 9, 12:27 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:33 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | — |
New Mexico Lobos vs Wichita State Shockers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Shockers a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 150. Ratings: Shockers 1585 (62nd of 365), Lobos 1631 (33rd). The Shockers are 1-1; the Lobos are 3-0. The Shockers have won 4 of their last 5; the Lobos 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
New Mexico Lobos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Little Rock Trojans | W 94–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | W 94–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Tech Trailblazers | W 100–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane | L 69–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Saint Joseph's Hawks | W 84–69 | – | – | matchup |
Wichita State Shockers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Wichita State Shockers | W 93–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cal State Northridge Matadors | W 79–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | L 79–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma State Cowboys | W 96–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | W 74–70 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
New Mexico Lobos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Wichita State Shockers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lobos3-0 1st · W3
- Lobos rating1631 33rd of 365, 2 games
- Shockers1-1 12th · L1
- Shockers rating1585 62nd of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
New Mexico Lobos 3-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $UNMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico Lobos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 12th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $WICHMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Wichita State Shockers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Mexico Lobos at Wichita State Shockers
Sign in to post a take on $UNMMBBWICHMBB261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Wichita State 59% to win. Projected score Wichita State 77, New Mexico 73; spread Wichita State −3.5, total 150. New Mexico Lobos at Wichita State Shockers, Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ET.