Markets moved hard on USC Trojans in the Wichita State Shockers game, up 40 points over three hours, from 31% to 71% for the home side. The model sits at 41% for USC, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Galen Center · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Wichita State Shockers vs USC Trojans: final score and how the prediction did, November 8, 2026
Wichita State at USC: Bandwagon's model made Wichita State a 60% favorite (Wichita State −1); the DraftKings closing line was USC −6.5 with a total of 156.5, as of Nov 8, 10:56 p.m. ET.
- Final scoreWichita State 86, USC 93 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerWichita State 60%
- Pregame Projected scoreWichita State 74, USC 73
- Model spreadWichita State −1 total 146.5
- Margin7 projected 1.2
- Total179 projected 146.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Wichita State Shockers or USC Trojans: the bandwagon
Axle pregame 60–40Market 28–72
FinalPregame: USC 40%Baseline: USC 51.0% (+10.5)Big swing: 17.2 ptsClutch window: 19:06
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| WICH | 45 | 41 | 86 |
| USC | 43 | 50 | 93 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Wichita State Shockers at USC Trojans win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to USC+27.3 points for USC over the last 5:00
Big swing17.2 ptstoward WICH at 23:03 of game time
Clutch window19:06within 5 points in the final half
BaselineUSC 51.0%game average, +10.5 points from the pregame 40.5%
Wichita State Shockers vs USC Trojans live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | WICH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | WICH26/54 | USC27/61 |
| 3-pointers | WICH9/19 | USC2/14 |
| Free throws | WICH25/36 | USC37/42 |
| Rebounds | WICH38 | USC34 |
| Assists | WICH13 | USC14 |
| Turnovers | WICH20 | USC10 |
| Steals | WICH7 | USC8 |
| Blocks | WICH2 | USC6 |
| Points in the paint | WICH30 | USC36 |
| Fast-break points | WICH11 | USC15 |
| Fouls | WICH30 | USC26 |
| Largest lead | WICH11 | USC7 |
Wichita State Shockers vs USC Trojans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | WICH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WICH86 | USC93 |
| Average win probability | WICH49% | USC51% |
| Longest scoring run | WICH+7 | USC+9 |
| Time leading | WICH10:32 | USC21:14 |
Wichita State Shockers vs USC Trojans model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET
Shockers60%
Win chanceTrojans40%
SpreadWICH −1closing model spread
Total146.5
Moneyline−147away / +147homeaway / home
Line movementUSC win chance, 72 stored lines
−10 pts for USC between Oct 29 and Nov 8
71%35%
Oct 29Nov 3Nov 8
Every stored line
| Stored | USC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:14 PM ET | 40% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 41% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 6:33 PM ET | 40% | −25 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:07 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:06 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:26 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:04 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:10 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:14 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:09 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:04 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:44 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:34 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:19 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:09 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:47 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 8:56 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 6:09 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:26 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:16 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 10:08 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:13 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 8:08 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 7:33 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET | 65% | +1 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 64% | −2 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:55 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 66% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 62% | +12 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- USC 1520 · WICH 1603
- Home spread
- +1 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET · 2026-11-09 03:37 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Wichita State Shockers 86, USC Trojans 93. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
ShockersTrojans
Neutrals only–
ShockersTrojans
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Trojans–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
DraftKings line, closing
| Axle | DraftKings line (closing) | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wichita State −1 | USC −6.5 |
| Total | 146.5 | 156.5 |
| Moneyline (away / home) | −147 / +147 | +210 / −258 |
DraftKings line: the spread, total and moneylines DraftKings published for this game, the last complete ones read before the game started, as read from a public league scoreboard feed, as of ; these figures have stood since . Shown for comparison; Axle never reads them (how the comparison works).
Wichita State vs USC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Men's college basketball marketKalshi had Shockers at 27% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 28% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 60% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | WICH | USC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 73% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 28% | 72% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 60% | 40% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, USC: +32Polymarket minus model, USC: +31
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Wichita State Shockers vs USC Trojans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Shockers a 1-point favorite, with a 60% chance to win. The model total is 146.5. Ratings: Trojans 1537 (119th of 365), Shockers 1585 (62nd). The Trojans are 2-0; the Shockers are 1-1. The Trojans have won 1 of their last 5; the Shockers 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Wichita State Shockers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Wichita State Shockers | W 93–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cal State Northridge Matadors | W 79–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | L 79–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma State Cowboys | W 96–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | W 74–70 | – | – | matchup |
USC Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at USC Trojans | L 86–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Milwaukee Panthers | W 95–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | L 79–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 68–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | L 72–91 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Wichita State Shockers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
USC Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Shockers1-1 12th · L1
- Shockers rating1585 62nd of 365, 2 games
- Trojans2-0 10th · W2
- Trojans rating1537 119th of 365, 2 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 12th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $WICHMBB
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No stances yet today on $WICHMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Wichita State Shockers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
USC Trojans 2-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $USCMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $USCMBB
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No stances yet today on $USCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the USC Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Wichita State Shockers at USC Trojans
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Final: Wichita State 86, USC 93. Bandwagon's model had the Wichita State at 60% and projected Wichita State 74, USC 73; spread Wichita State −1, total 146.5. Last read: Kalshi 27%, Polymarket 28% for Wichita State.