NC State Wolfpack vs Murray State Racers prediction, odds and picks, November 19, 2026
NC State at Murray State: Bandwagon's model makes Murray State a 51% favorite (Murray State −1.5).
NC State Wolfpack vs Murray State Racers odds and win probability
Axle gives Murray State a 51% chance to win, by about 2 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Murray State
All CBB ratings| NCSU | MUR | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1598 54th of 365 | 1550 93rd of 365 |
| Record | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W3 | W3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MUR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:18 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 51% | +6 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:48 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 12:27 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:03 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:14 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:06 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:22 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET | 46% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:26 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:04 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:59 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:04 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:14 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:04 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:10 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:29 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:04 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:44 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:34 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:14 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:35 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:51 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:36 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:31 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:26 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:06 PM ET | 45% | −2 |
| Nov 6, 8:36 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 6:09 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | — |
NC State Wolfpack vs Murray State Racers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Racers a 1.5-point favorite, with a 51% chance to win. The model total is 148. Ratings: Racers 1550 (93rd of 365), Wolfpack 1598 (54th). The Racers are 3-0; the Wolfpack are 3-0. The Racers have won 3 of their last 5; the Wolfpack 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
NC State Wolfpack
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Presbyterian Blue Hose | W 94–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers | W 77–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Campbell Fighting Camels | W 83–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Longhorns | L 66–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Virginia Cavaliers | L 74–81 | – | – | matchup |
Murray State Racers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Alcorn State Braves | W 94–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northwestern State Demons | W 93–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tennessee State Tigers | W 94–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | L 75–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UIC Flames | L 79–92 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
NC State Wolfpack: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Murray State Racers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wolfpack3-0 5th · W3
- Wolfpack rating1598 54th of 365, 2 games
- Racers3-0 1st · W3
- Racers rating1550 93rd of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $NCSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the NC State Wolfpack bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $MURMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Murray State Racers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on NC State Wolfpack at Murray State Racers
Sign in to post a take on $NCSUMBBMURMBB261119: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Murray State 51% to win. Projected score Murray State 75, NC State 73; spread Murray State −1.5, total 148. NC State Wolfpack at Murray State Racers, Thu, Nov 19, 6:00 PM ET.