Tennessee State Tigers open at home against Murray State Racers with the score tied 0-0 at 19:56 of the 1st. The model gives the home side a 58% chance right now, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Gentry Complex · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Murray State Racers vs Tennessee State Tigers: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreMurray State 94, Tennessee State 64 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerTennessee State 58%
- Pregame Projected scoreTennessee State 75, Murray State 71
- Model spreadTennessee State −3.5 total 145.5
- Margin30 projected 3.5
- Total158 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Murray State Racers or Tennessee State Tigers: the bandwagon
Axle 42–58Market –
FinalPregame: TNST 58%Baseline: TNST 15.9% (−42.3)Big swing: 38.0 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 46 | 48 | 94 |
| TNST | 35 | 29 | 64 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Murray State Racers at Tennessee State Tigers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for TNST over the last 5:00
Big swing38.0 ptstoward TNST at 5:05 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineTNST 15.9%game average, −42.3 points from the pregame 58.2%
Murray State Racers vs Tennessee State Tigers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MUR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | MUR32/62 | TNST17/55 |
| 3-pointers | MUR6/20 | TNST5/22 |
| Free throws | MUR24/29 | TNST25/35 |
| Rebounds | MUR37 | TNST34 |
| Assists | MUR13 | TNST11 |
| Turnovers | MUR17 | TNST26 |
| Steals | MUR9 | TNST6 |
| Blocks | MUR3 | TNST2 |
| Points in the paint | MUR50 | TNST22 |
| Fast-break points | MUR30 | TNST15 |
| Fouls | MUR26 | TNST25 |
| Largest lead | MUR30 | TNST1 |
Murray State Racers vs Tennessee State Tigers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MUR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MUR94 | TNST64 |
| Average win probability | MUR84% | TNST16% |
| Longest scoring run | MUR+10 | TNST+6 |
| Time leading | MUR35:42 | TNST0:29 |
Murray State Racers vs Tennessee State Tigers odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET
Racers42%
Win chanceTigers58%
SpreadTNST −3.5closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+139away / −139homeaway / home
Line movementTNST win chance, 11 stored lines
+8 pts for TNST between Oct 29 and Nov 2
64%45%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | TNST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 58% | +6 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 52% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- TNST 1544 · MUR 1509
- Home spread
- −3.5 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET · 2026-11-02 13:05 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Murray State Racers 94, Tennessee State Tigers 64. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
RacersTigers
Neutrals only–
RacersTigers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Tigers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Murray State Racers vs Tennessee State Tigers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tigers a 3.5-point favorite, with a 58% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Tigers 1511 (160th of 361), Racers 1542 (100th). The Tigers are 0-1; the Racers are 1-0. The Tigers have won 3 of their last 5; the Racers 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Murray State Racers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tennessee State Tigers | W 94–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | L 75–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UIC Flames | L 79–92 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bradley Braves | L 78–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Evansville Purple Aces | W 88–75 | – | – | matchup |
Tennessee State Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Murray State Racers | L 64–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Iowa State Cyclones | L 74–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Morehead State Eagles | W 93–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UT Martin Skyhawks | W 68–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UT Martin Skyhawks | W 67–42 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Murray State Racers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Tennessee State Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Racers1-0 4th · W1
- Racers rating1542 100th of 361, 1 games
- Tigers0-1 7th · L1
- Tigers rating1511 160th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MURMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MURMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MURMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MURMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Murray State Racers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TNSTMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TNSTMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TNSTMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $TNSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tennessee State Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Murray State Racers at Tennessee State Tigers
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Final: Murray State 94, Tennessee State 64. Bandwagon's model had the Tennessee State at 58% and projected Tennessee State 75, Murray State 71; spread Tennessee State −3.5, total 145.5.