Monmouth Hawks vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction, odds and picks, November 23, 2026
Monmouth at North Carolina: Bandwagon's model makes North Carolina an 82% favorite (North Carolina −11).
Monmouth Hawks vs North Carolina Tar Heels odds and win probability
Axle gives North Carolina a 82% chance to win, by about 11 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has North Carolina
All CBB ratings| MONM | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1495 179th of 365 | 1631 35th of 365 |
| Record | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UNC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:18 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:38 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 82% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | — |
Monmouth Hawks vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tar Heels a 11-point favorite at home, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 147. Ratings: Tar Heels 1631 (35th of 365), Hawks 1495 (179th). The Tar Heels are 3-0; the Hawks are 0-2. The Tar Heels have won 3 of their last 5; the Hawks 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Monmouth Hawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Rhode Island Rams | L 66–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. John's Red Storm | L 63–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hofstra Pride | L 69–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Campbell Fighting Camels | W 74–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Drexel Dragons | W 65–57 | – | – | matchup |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | W 76–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wofford Terriers | W 109–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Carolina Catamounts | W 80–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VCU Rams | L 78–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Clemson Tigers | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Monmouth Hawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Carolina Tar Heels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hawks0-2 13th · L2
- Hawks rating1495 179th of 365, 2 games
- Tar Heels3-0 6th · W3
- Tar Heels rating1631 35th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Monmouth Hawks 0-2
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 13th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $MONMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Monmouth Hawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $UNCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Tar Heels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Monmouth Hawks at North Carolina Tar Heels
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: North Carolina 82% to win. Projected score North Carolina 79, Monmouth 68; spread North Carolina −11, total 147. Monmouth Hawks at North Carolina Tar Heels, Mon, Nov 23, 8:00 PM ET.