Michigan State Spartans vs Duke Blue Devils prediction, odds and picks, November 10, 2026
- Projected winnerDuke 65%
- Projected scoreDuke 75, Michigan State 70
- Model spreadDuke −5.5 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Michigan State Spartans or Duke Blue Devils: the bandwagon
Axle 35–65Market –
Michigan State Spartans at Duke Blue Devils win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Michigan State Spartans vs Duke Blue Devils live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Michigan State Spartans vs Duke Blue Devils team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MSU– | DUKE– |
| Average win probability | MSU– | DUKE– |
| Longest scoring run | MSU– | DUKE– |
| Time leading | MSU– | DUKE– |
Michigan State Spartans vs Duke Blue Devils odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DUKE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:00 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:14 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:46 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 65% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:55 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 66% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 62% | +12 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- DUKE 1766 · MSU 1684
- Home spread
- −5.5 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Michigan State Spartans vs Duke Blue Devils prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Blue Devils a 5.5-point favorite, with a 65% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Blue Devils 1766 (2nd of 361), Spartans 1684 (10th). The Blue Devils are 1-0; the Spartans are 1-0. The Blue Devils have won 4 of their last 5; the Spartans 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Blue Devils won 2, the Spartans 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Michigan State Spartans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Quinnipiac Bobcats | W 96–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 63–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisville Cardinals | W 77–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota State Bison | W 92–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 84–88 | – | – | matchup |
Duke Blue Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Army Black Knights | W 84–50 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UConn Huskies | L 72–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. John's Red Storm | W 80–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs TCU Horned Frogs | W 81–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Siena Saints | W 71–65 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils at Michigan State Spartans | 66–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| Duke Blue Devils at Michigan State Spartans | 74–65 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Michigan State Spartans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Duke Blue Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Spartans1-0 6th · W1
- Spartans rating1684 10th of 361, 1 games
- Blue Devils1-0 4th · W1
- Blue Devils rating1766 2nd of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Michigan State Spartans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Duke Blue Devils 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $DUKEMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Duke Blue Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Michigan State Spartans at Duke Blue Devils
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Model: Duke 65% to win. Projected score Duke 75, Michigan State 70; spread Duke −5.5, total 145.5. Michigan State Spartans at Duke Blue Devils, Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET.