Marshall Thundering Herd vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction, odds and picks, November 20, 2026
Marshall at North Carolina: Bandwagon's model makes North Carolina an 89% favorite (North Carolina −14.5).
Marshall Thundering Herd vs North Carolina Tar Heels odds and win probability
Axle gives North Carolina a 89% chance to win, by about 15 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has North Carolina
All CBB ratings| MRSH | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1484 210th of 365 | 1631 35th of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UNC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 89% | +7 |
| Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:13 PM ET | 82% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:03 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:12 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:52 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:06 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:22 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:55 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:59 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:04 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:04 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:14 PM ET | 81% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:09 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 80% | — |
Marshall Thundering Herd vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tar Heels a 14.5-point favorite at home, with a 89% chance to win. The model total is 150. Ratings: Tar Heels 1631 (35th of 365), Thundering Herd 1484 (210th). The Tar Heels are 3-0; the Thundering Herd are 1-2. The Tar Heels have won 3 of their last 5; the Thundering Herd 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Marshall Thundering Herd
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Ohio State Buckeyes | L 74–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | L 76–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Bulls | W 92–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 78–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 82–99 | – | – | matchup |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | W 76–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wofford Terriers | W 109–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Carolina Catamounts | W 80–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VCU Rams | L 78–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Clemson Tigers | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Marshall Thundering Herd: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Carolina Tar Heels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Thundering Herd1-2 9th · L2
- Thundering Herd rating1484 210th of 365, 3 games
- Tar Heels3-0 6th · W3
- Tar Heels rating1631 35th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $MRSHMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Marshall Thundering Herd bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $UNCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Tar Heels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Marshall Thundering Herd at North Carolina Tar Heels
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: North Carolina 89% to win. Projected score North Carolina 82, Marshall 68; spread North Carolina −14.5, total 150. Marshall Thundering Herd at North Carolina Tar Heels, Fri, Nov 20, 9:00 PM ET.