Marshall Thundering Herd leads Buffalo Bulls 3-2 with 18:29 left in the 1st quarter. The model gives Marshall a 68% chance at home, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Cam Henderson Center · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreBuffalo 65, Marshall 92 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMarshall 68%
- Pregame Projected scoreMarshall 76, Buffalo 70
- Model spreadMarshall −6 total 145.5
- Margin27 projected 6.2
- Total157 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Buffalo Bulls or Marshall Thundering Herd: the bandwagon
Axle 32–68Market –
FinalPregame: MRSH 68%Baseline: MRSH 94.0% (+26.0)Big swing: 9.1 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 24 | 41 | 65 |
| MRSH | 45 | 47 | 92 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Buffalo Bulls at Marshall Thundering Herd win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for MRSH over the last 5:00
Big swing9.1 ptstoward MRSH at 6:34 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineMRSH 94.0%game average, +26.0 points from the pregame 68.0%
Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | BUF | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | BUF23/62 | MRSH34/63 |
| 3-pointers | BUF5/27 | MRSH11/26 |
| Free throws | BUF14/21 | MRSH13/19 |
| Rebounds | BUF31 | MRSH41 |
| Assists | BUF7 | MRSH17 |
| Turnovers | BUF10 | MRSH11 |
| Steals | BUF8 | MRSH6 |
| Blocks | BUF6 | MRSH2 |
| Points in the paint | BUF32 | MRSH42 |
| Fast-break points | BUF13 | MRSH14 |
| Fouls | BUF17 | MRSH17 |
| Largest lead | BUF0 | MRSH34 |
Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | BUF | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF65 | MRSH92 |
| Average win probability | BUF6% | MRSH94% |
| Longest scoring run | BUF+5 | MRSH+10 |
| Time leading | BUF0:00 | MRSH33:26 |
Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET
Bulls32%
Win chanceThundering Herd68%
SpreadMRSH −6closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+212away / −212homeaway / home
Line movementMRSH win chance, 11 stored lines
+3 pts for MRSH between Oct 29 and Nov 2
75%60%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | MRSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 69% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- MRSH 1488 · BUF 1468
- Home spread
- −6
- Stored
- Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET · 2026-11-03 02:06 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Buffalo Bulls 65, Marshall Thundering Herd 92. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
BullsThundering Herd
Neutrals only–
BullsThundering Herd
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Thundering Herd–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Thundering Herd a 6-point favorite at home, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Thundering Herd 1505 (169th of 361), Bulls 1451 (251st). The Thundering Herd are 1-0; the Bulls are 0-1. The Thundering Herd have won 2 of their last 5; the Bulls 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Buffalo Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Marshall Thundering Herd | L 65–92 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Akron Zips | L 70–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toledo Rockets | L 78–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eastern Michigan Eagles | W 72–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Central Michigan Chippewas | L 70–75 | – | – | matchup |
Marshall Thundering Herd
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Buffalo Bulls | W 92–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 78–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 82–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Old Dominion Monarchs | W 97–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | L 75–79 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Buffalo Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Marshall Thundering Herd: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulls0-1 9th · L1
- Bulls rating1451 251st of 361, 1 games
- Thundering Herd1-0 5th · W1
- Thundering Herd rating1505 169th of 361, 1 games
Buffalo Bulls 0-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
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NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
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