Longwood Lancers vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Longwood at East Tennessee State: Bandwagon's model makes East Tennessee State a 71% favorite (East Tennessee State −7.5).
Longwood Lancers vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers odds and win probability
Axle gives East Tennessee State a 71% chance to win, by about 7 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has East Tennessee State
All CBB ratings| LONG | ETSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1476 218th of 365 | 1521 148th of 365 |
| Record | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ETSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:33 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:38 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:53 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:33 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:18 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 71% | — |
Longwood Lancers vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Buccaneers a 7.5-point favorite at home, with a 71% chance to win. The model total is 146. Ratings: Buccaneers 1521 (148th of 365), Lancers 1476 (218th). The Buccaneers are 0-2; the Lancers are 3-1. The Buccaneers have won 2 of their last 5; the Lancers 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Longwood Lancers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs North Carolina Central Eagles | W 80–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Saint Joseph's Hawks | L 73–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UNC Asheville Bulldogs | L 82–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Radford Highlanders | W 90–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charleston Southern Buccaneers | W 107–96 | – | – | matchup |
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at NC State Wolfpack | L 63–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona State Sun Devils | L 65–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Furman Paladins | L 61–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Carolina Catamounts | W 69–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs The Citadel Bulldogs | W 83–76 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Longwood Lancers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
East Tennessee State Buccaneers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lancers3-1 2nd · W2
- Lancers rating1476 218th of 365, 2 games
- Buccaneers0-2 11th · L2
- Buccaneers rating1521 148th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Longwood Lancers 3-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $LONGMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Longwood Lancers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 11th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $ETSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the East Tennessee State Buccaneers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Longwood Lancers at East Tennessee State Buccaneers
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: East Tennessee State 71% to win. Projected score East Tennessee State 77, Longwood 69; spread East Tennessee State −7.5, total 146. Longwood Lancers at East Tennessee State Buccaneers, Sat, Nov 21, 4:00 PM ET.