Detroit Mercy Titans vs Michigan State Spartans prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Detroit Mercy at Michigan State: Bandwagon's model makes Michigan State a 90% favorite (Michigan State −16).
Detroit Mercy Titans vs Michigan State Spartans odds and win probability
Axle gives Michigan State a 90% chance to win, by about 16 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Michigan State
All CBB ratings| DETM | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1464 234th of 365 | 1694 10th of 365 |
| Record | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:18 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:33 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:38 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 90% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 89% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:14 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 88% | — |
Detroit Mercy Titans vs Michigan State Spartans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Spartans a 16-point favorite at home, with a 90% chance to win. The model total is 146. Ratings: Spartans 1694 (10th of 365), Titans 1464 (234th). The Spartans are 3-0; the Titans are 0-2. The Spartans have won 4 of their last 5; the Titans 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Spartans won 1, the Titans 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Detroit Mercy Titans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Xavier Musketeers | L 55–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marquette Golden Eagles | L 32–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wright State Raiders | L 63–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Robert Morris Colonials | W 70–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Milwaukee Panthers | W 84–63 | – | – | matchup |
Michigan State Spartans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Duke Blue Devils | W 79–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | W 91–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Quinnipiac Bobcats | W 96–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 63–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisville Cardinals | W 77–69 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Mercy Titans at Michigan State Spartans | 56–84 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Detroit Mercy Titans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Michigan State Spartans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Titans0-2 10th · L2
- Titans rating1464 234th of 365, 1 games
- Spartans3-0 2nd · W3
- Spartans rating1694 10th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $DETMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Detroit Mercy Titans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $MSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Michigan State Spartans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Detroit Mercy Titans at Michigan State Spartans
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Michigan State 90% to win. Projected score Michigan State 81, Detroit Mercy 65; spread Michigan State −16, total 146. Detroit Mercy Titans at Michigan State Spartans, Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM ET.