Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds prediction, odds and picks, November 23, 2026
Arkansas State at Southern Utah: Bandwagon's model makes Arkansas State a 62% favorite (Arkansas State −2).
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds odds and win probability
Axle gives Arkansas State a 62% chance to win, by about 2 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Arkansas State
All CBB ratings| ARST | SUU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1552 90th of 365 | 1416 298th of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SUU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 38% | +5 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | — |
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Red Wolves a 2-point favorite, with a 62% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Thunderbirds 1416 (298th of 365), Red Wolves 1552 (90th). The Thunderbirds are 3-0; the Red Wolves are 1-2. The Thunderbirds have won 1 of their last 5; the Red Wolves 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UT Martin Skyhawks | L 65–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Alabama Crimson Tide | L 86–101 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | W 71–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 77–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 81–58 | – | – | matchup |
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UT Arlington Mavericks | L 63–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs California Baptist Lancers | L 75–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Valley Wolverines | L 88–92 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Tech Trailblazers | W 81–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Abilene Christian Wildcats | L 83–87 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Southern Utah Thunderbirds: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Red Wolves1-2 5th · L2
- Red Wolves rating1552 90th of 365, 2 games
- Thunderbirds3-0 1st · W3
- Thunderbirds rating1416 298th of 365, 0 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $ARSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $SUUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Utah Thunderbirds
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Arkansas State 62% to win. Projected score Arkansas State 74, Southern Utah 72; spread Arkansas State −2, total 145.5. Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Utah Thunderbirds, Mon, Nov 23, 3:30 PM ET.