Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction, odds and picks, November 6, 2026
- Projected winnerAlabama 79%
- Projected scoreAlabama 79, Arkansas State 69
- Model spreadAlabama −10 total 147
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Arkansas State Red Wolves or Alabama Crimson Tide: the bandwagon
Axle 21–79Market –
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Alabama Crimson Tide win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ARST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ARST– | ALA– |
| Average win probability | ARST– | ALA– |
| Longest scoring run | ARST– | ALA– |
| Time leading | ARST– | ALA– |
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ALA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET | 79% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:46 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:08 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 78% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 82% | +17 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- ALA 1677 · ARST 1560
- Home spread
- −10
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Crimson Tide a 10-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 147. Ratings: Crimson Tide 1677 (11th of 361), Red Wolves 1560 (78th). The Crimson Tide are 0-0; the Red Wolves are 0-0. The Crimson Tide have won 3 of their last 5; the Red Wolves 4 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Crimson Tide won 2, the Red Wolves 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toledo Rockets | W 71–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 77–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 81–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 89–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 102–94 | – | – | matchup |
Alabama Crimson Tide
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sam Houston Bearkats | W 96–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | L 77–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | W 90–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hofstra Pride | W 90–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ole Miss Rebels | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves at Alabama Crimson Tide | 79–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves at Alabama Crimson Tide | 65–89 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Alabama Crimson Tide: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Red Wolves0-0 2nd · -
- Red Wolves rating1560 78th of 361, 1 games
- Crimson Tide0-0 1st · -
- Crimson Tide rating1677 11th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak -
No stances yet today on $ARSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak -
No stances yet today on $ALAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama Crimson Tide bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arkansas State Red Wolves at Alabama Crimson Tide
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Model: Alabama 79% to win. Projected score Alabama 79, Arkansas State 69; spread Alabama −10, total 147. Arkansas State Red Wolves at Alabama Crimson Tide, Fri, Nov 6, 7:30 PM ET.