Alabama State Hornets vs Fresno State Bulldogs prediction, odds and picks, November 20, 2026
Alabama State at Fresno State: Bandwagon's model makes Fresno State a 74% favorite (Fresno State −8).
Alabama State Hornets vs Fresno State Bulldogs odds and win probability
Axle gives Fresno State a 74% chance to win, by about 8 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Fresno State
All CBB ratings| ALST | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1389 326th of 365 | 1447 258th of 365 |
| Record | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | FRES win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 74% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:33 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:13 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:07 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:52 PM ET | 73% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:19 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:10 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:29 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:04 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:09 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 74% | — |
Alabama State Hornets vs Fresno State Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 8-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 148.5. Ratings: Bulldogs 1447 (258th of 365), Hornets 1389 (326th). The Bulldogs are 2-1; the Hornets are 0-2. The Bulldogs have won 2 of their last 5; the Hornets 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Alabama State Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Texas A&M Aggies | L 66–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alcorn State Braves | L 65–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Grambling Tigers | L 63–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Jaguars | L 64–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Alabama A&M Bulldogs | W 89–88 | – | – | matchup |
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Georgia State Panthers | W 95–92 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC San Diego Tritons | L 65–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | L 63–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Grand Canyon Lopes | L 60–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | W 82–68 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Alabama State Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Fresno State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hornets0-2 6th · L2
- Hornets rating1389 326th of 365, 1 games
- Bulldogs2-1 8th · W1
- Bulldogs rating1447 258th of 365, 1 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $ALSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama State Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $FRESMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fresno State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Alabama State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Fresno State 74% to win. Projected score Fresno State 78, Alabama State 70; spread Fresno State −8, total 148.5. Alabama State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs, Fri, Nov 20, 10:00 PM ET.