Fresno State Bulldogs vs UC San Diego Tritons prediction, odds and picks, November 7, 2026
- Projected winnerUC San Diego 78%
- Projected scoreUC San Diego 77, Fresno State 68
- Model spreadUC San Diego −9.5 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Fresno State Bulldogs or UC San Diego Tritons: the bandwagon
Axle 22–78Market –
Fresno State Bulldogs at UC San Diego Tritons win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs UC San Diego Tritons live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs UC San Diego Tritons team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | FRES | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FRES– | UCSD– |
| Average win probability | FRES– | UCSD– |
| Longest scoring run | FRES– | UCSD– |
| Time leading | FRES– | UCSD– |
Fresno State Bulldogs vs UC San Diego Tritons odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UCSD win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:25 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:13 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 78% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 81% | +16 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- UCSD 1559 · FRES 1456
- Home spread
- −9.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs UC San Diego Tritons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tritons a 9.5-point favorite at home, with a 78% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Tritons 1559 (79th of 361), Bulldogs 1456 (247th). The Tritons are 0-0; the Bulldogs are 0-0. The Tritons have won 3 of their last 5; the Bulldogs 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Tritons won 1, the Bulldogs 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Colorado State Rams | L 63–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Grand Canyon Lopes | L 60–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | W 82–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boise State Broncos | L 53–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | L 70–74 | – | – | matchup |
UC San Diego Tritons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Cal State Northridge Matadors | L 70–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cal Poly Mustangs | W 72–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | W 64–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cal State Fullerton Titans | L 71–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cal Poly Mustangs | W 80–64 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego Tritons at Fresno State Bulldogs | 78–73 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Fresno State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UC San Diego Tritons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulldogs0-0 3rd · -
- Bulldogs rating1456 247th of 361, 0 games
- Tritons0-0 10th · -
- Tritons rating1559 79th of 361, 0 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak -
No stances yet today on $FRESMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fresno State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak -
No stances yet today on $UCSDMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UC San Diego Tritons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Fresno State Bulldogs at UC San Diego Tritons
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Model: UC San Diego 78% to win. Projected score UC San Diego 77, Fresno State 68; spread UC San Diego −9.5, total 145.5. Fresno State Bulldogs at UC San Diego Tritons, Sat, Nov 7, 10:00 PM ET.