Alabama State Hornets vs California Golden Bears prediction, odds and picks, November 23, 2026
Alabama State at California: Bandwagon's model makes California an 81% favorite (California −11).
Alabama State Hornets vs California Golden Bears odds and win probability
Axle gives California a 81% chance to win, by about 11 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has California
All CBB ratings| ALST | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1389 326th of 365 | 1528 136th of 365 |
| Record | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | — |
Alabama State Hornets vs California Golden Bears prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Golden Bears a 11-point favorite at home, with a 81% chance to win. The model total is 147.5. Ratings: Golden Bears 1528 (136th of 365), Hornets 1389 (326th). The Golden Bears are 2-1; the Hornets are 0-2. The Golden Bears have won 3 of their last 5; the Hornets 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Alabama State Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Texas A&M Aggies | L 66–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alcorn State Braves | L 65–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Grambling Tigers | L 63–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Jaguars | L 64–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Alabama A&M Bulldogs | W 89–88 | – | – | matchup |
California Golden Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs California Golden Bears | W 86–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Radford Highlanders | W 84–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Saint Joseph's Hawks | L 75–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UIC Flames | W 91–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida State Seminoles | L 89–95 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Alabama State Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
California Golden Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hornets0-2 6th · L2
- Hornets rating1389 326th of 365, 1 games
- Golden Bears2-1 13th · L1
- Golden Bears rating1528 136th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $ALSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama State Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 13th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CALMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the California Golden Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Alabama State Hornets at California Golden Bears
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: California 81% to win. Projected score California 79, Alabama State 68; spread California −11, total 147.5. Alabama State Hornets at California Golden Bears, Mon, Nov 23, 10:00 PM ET.