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Axle 2.076% straight up1147 games
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Fertitta Center · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line

California Golden Bears vs Houston Cougars: final score and how the prediction did, November 8, 2026

California at Houston: Bandwagon's model made Houston a 75% favorite (Houston −8.5); the DraftKings closing line was Houston −19.5 with a total of 143.5, as of Nov 8, 8:27 p.m. ET.

Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated

California Golden Bears or Houston Cougars: the bandwagon

Bandwagon

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Golden Bears▲ Hop on▼ Jump off
Cougars▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Axle pregame 25–75Market 4–96

FinalPregame: HOU 75%Baseline: HOU 95.0% (+20.3)Big swing: 11.4 ptsClutch window: none
California Golden Bears
Record 2-1
68+3686+43
Houston Cougars
Record 2-0
Score by period
Team12T
CAL323668
HOU434386
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
–

California Golden Bears at Houston Cougars win probability

Bandwagon's model
Last update: 2nd halfFetched at
Win probability for HOU: 72 points, 75% at the start, 100% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:00HOU 100%CAL 0%Market 96%
Win probability for HOU: 72 points, 75% at the start, 100% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:00HOU 100%CAL 0%Market 96%

Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is computed

The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.

MomentumStable+0.0 points for HOU over the last 5:00
Big swing11.4 ptstoward HOU at 4:07 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineHOU 95.0%game average, +20.3 points from the pregame 74.8%

California Golden Bears vs Houston Cougars live stats

Team totals read from the league's public game summary
Live team statistics
StatCALHOU
Field goalsCAL25/57HOU35/67
3-pointersCAL9/26HOU6/16
Free throwsCAL9/14HOU10/11
ReboundsCAL31HOU35
AssistsCAL15HOU18
TurnoversCAL16HOU9
StealsCAL6HOU14
BlocksCAL1HOU7
Points in the paintCAL24HOU50
Fast-break pointsCAL8HOU20
FoulsCAL15HOU14
Largest leadCAL0HOU23

California Golden Bears vs Houston Cougars team breakdown

From the stored in-game series
Team breakdown
StatCALHOU
ScoreCAL68HOU86
Average win probabilityCAL5%HOU95%
Longest scoring runCAL+7HOU+9
Time leadingCAL0:00HOU35:53

California Golden Bears vs Houston Cougars model odds

Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET
Golden Bears25%
Win chance
Cougars75%
SpreadHOU −8.5closing model spread
Total146.5
Moneyline+296away / −296homeaway / home
Line movementHOU win chance, 128 stored lines
+25 pts for HOU between Oct 29 and Nov 8
80%13%
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET: HOU 50%Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET: HOU 18%Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET: HOU 18%Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET: HOU 29%Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET: HOU 29%Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET: HOU 29%Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET: HOU 29%Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET: HOU 29%Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET: HOU 29%Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET: HOU 30%Nov 5, 8:58 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 5, 9:28 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 5, 9:48 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 5, 10:57 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET: HOU 30%Nov 6, 7:12 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 6, 9:36 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 6, 10:35 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 6, 11:14 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 6, 11:34 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET: HOU 30%Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 7, 5:24 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 7, 6:10 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 7, 8:04 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 7, 9:04 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET: HOU 30%Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET: HOU 30%Nov 8, 6:33 PM ET: HOU 75%Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET: HOU 75%Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET: HOU 75%Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET: HOU 75%
Oct 29Nov 3Nov 8
Every stored line
StoredHOU winMove
Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET75%0
Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET75%0
Nov 8, 8:23 PM ET75%0
Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET75%0
Nov 8, 7:14 PM ET75%0
Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET75%0
Nov 8, 6:33 PM ET75%+45
Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET30%0
Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET30%0
Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET30%0
Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET30%0
Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET30%0
Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET30%0
Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET30%0
Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET30%0
Nov 7, 11:52 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 11:06 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 10:22 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 9:26 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 9:04 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 8:59 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 8:04 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 7:04 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 6:40 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 6:10 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 5:24 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 5:09 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 4:49 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 4:14 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET30%0
Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET30%0
Nov 7, 12:49 AM ET30%0
Nov 6, 11:44 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 11:34 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 11:24 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 11:14 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 10:59 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 10:35 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 10:20 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 9:51 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 9:36 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 9:31 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 9:26 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 9:06 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 8:56 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 7:12 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 6:09 PM ET30%0
Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET30%0
Nov 6, 12:54 AM ET30%0
Nov 5, 11:16 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 10:57 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 10:27 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 10:08 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 9:48 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 9:43 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 9:33 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 9:28 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 9:18 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 9:13 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 8:58 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 8:08 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 7:33 PM ET30%0
Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET30%0
Nov 5, 12:11 AM ET30%0
Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET30%+1
Nov 4, 10:16 PM ET29%0
Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET29%0
Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET29%0
Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET29%0
Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET29%0
Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET29%0
Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET29%0
Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET29%0
Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET29%0
Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET29%0
Nov 3, 9:18 PM ET29%0
Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET29%0
Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET29%0
Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET29%0
Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET29%0
Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET29%0
Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET29%0
Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET29%0
Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET29%−1
Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 10:03 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 1:55 PM ET30%0
Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET30%0
Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET30%0
Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET30%0
Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET30%0
Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET30%0
Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET30%+12
Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET18%0
Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET18%0
Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET18%−32
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET50%—
Ratings
HOU 1703 · CAL 1540
Home spread
−8.5 · neutral site, no home advantage
Stored
Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET · 2026-11-09 03:28 UTC
Version
Axle 2.0

How the model works

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Result: California Golden Bears 68, Houston Cougars 86. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.

How this line is made

In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal

  • Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
  • Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
  • Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
  • Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External

  • Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
  • Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
  • Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Who ya got: bandwagon versus model

Who ya got · no picks yet

Be the first on the bandwagon

Golden BearsCougars
Neutrals only–
Golden BearsCougars
Picks locked at kickoff.
Bandwagon minus model, Cougars–

No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

DraftKings line, closing

Axle and the DraftKings line for California at Houston
AxleDraftKings line (closing)
SpreadHouston −8.5Houston −19.5
Total146.5143.5
Moneyline (away / home)+296 / −296+1400 / −3200

DraftKings line: the spread, total and moneylines DraftKings published for this game, the last complete ones read before the game started, as read from a public league scoreboard feed, as of ; these figures have stood since . Shown for comparison; Axle never reads them (how the comparison works).

California vs Houston odds on Kalshi and Polymarket

Every Men's college basketball market

Kalshi had Cougars at 96% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 96% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 75% when last read, .

SourceCALHOUPrice read
Kalshi4%96% · closing price
Polymarket4%96% · closing price
Bandwagon model25%75% · model 2.0
Kalshi minus model, HOU: +21Polymarket minus model, HOU: +21

Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works

California Golden Bears vs Houston Cougars prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Cougars a 8.5-point favorite, with a 75% chance to win. The model total is 146.5. Ratings: Cougars 1716 (6th of 365), Golden Bears 1528 (136th). The Cougars are 2-0; the Golden Bears are 2-1. The Cougars have won 3 of their last 5; the Golden Bears 3 of their last 5.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Recent form

California Golden Bears

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
vs California Golden BearsW 86–68––matchup
vs Radford HighlandersW 84–70––matchup
vs Saint Joseph's HawksL 75–76––matchup
vs UIC FlamesW 91–73––matchup
at Florida State SeminolesL 89–95––matchup

Houston Cougars

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
at Houston CougarsL 68–86––matchup
vs La Salle ExplorersW 94–55––matchup
vs Illinois Fighting IlliniL 55–65––matchup
vs Texas A&M AggiesW 88–57––matchup
vs Idaho VandalsW 78–47––matchup

Head-to-head

No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.

Injuries

California Golden Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

Houston Cougars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings
  • Golden Bears2-1 13th · L1
  • Golden Bears rating1528 136th of 365, 2 games
  • Cougars2-0 9th · W2
  • Cougars rating1716 6th of 365, 2 games

California Golden Bears 2-1

NCAA Division I men's basketball · 13th · streak L1

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CALMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CALMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CALMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $CALMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the California Golden Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Golden Bears roster, schedule and more

Houston Cougars 2-0

NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak W2

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $HOUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $HOUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $HOUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $HOUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Cougars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Cougars roster, schedule and more

Takes on California Golden Bears at Houston Cougars

Sign in to post a take on $HOUMBBCALMBB261109: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.

No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.

Final: California 68, Houston 86. Bandwagon's model had the Houston at 75% and projected Houston 77, California 69; spread Houston −8.5, total 146.5. Last read: Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96% for Houston.