Air Force Falcons vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Air Force at UTSA: Bandwagon's model makes UTSA a 69% favorite (UTSA −6.5).
Air Force Falcons vs UTSA Roadrunners odds and win probability
Axle gives UTSA a 69% chance to win, by about 7 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has UTSA
All CBB ratings| AF | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1324 358th of 365 | 1348 354th of 365 |
| Record | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UTSA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:13 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:18 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 69% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 5:18 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 71% | — |
Air Force Falcons vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Roadrunners a 6.5-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 150.5. Ratings: Roadrunners 1348 (354th of 365), Falcons 1324 (358th). The Roadrunners are 1-1; the Falcons are 2-1. The Roadrunners have won 1 of their last 5; the Falcons 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Air Force Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Idaho State Bengals | W 89–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wright State Raiders | L 71–102 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | L 45–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | L 59–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Grand Canyon Lopes | L 60–86 | – | – | matchup |
UTSA Roadrunners
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs VMI Keydets | W 70–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San José State Spartans | L 74–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rice Owls | L 71–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wichita State Shockers | L 67–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Carolina Pirates | L 81–82 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Air Force Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UTSA Roadrunners: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Falcons2-1 6th · W2
- Falcons rating1324 358th of 365, 2 games
- Roadrunners1-1 11th · W1
- Roadrunners rating1348 354th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $AFMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Air Force Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
UTSA Roadrunners 1-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 11th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UTSAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UTSA Roadrunners bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Air Force Falcons at UTSA Roadrunners
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: UTSA 69% to win. Projected score UTSA 79, Air Force 72; spread UTSA −6.5, total 150.5. Air Force Falcons at UTSA Roadrunners, Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM ET.