Prediction Market Break-Even Calculator
At a price and fee, how often must it settle yes for you to break even?
- Price implies
- 40.0%
- Fees add
- 0.49 points
- Expected result per contract at your 45%
- $0.045
| Price | Break-even chance |
|---|---|
| 30¢ | 30.43% |
| 35¢ | 35.46% |
| 40¢ | 40.49% |
| 45¢ | 45.50% |
| 50¢ | 50.51% |
Break-even is where expected profit is zero: the probability at which your average result, after fees, is nothing.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the prediction Market Break-Even Calculator works
With no fee the break-even probability is the price: a 40¢ contract needs a 40% chance. A fee raises it, because winnings are smaller or the cost is larger. The calculator computes the probability at which the expected net is zero: p × net profit = (1 − p) × loss.
Enter your own probability to see the expected result per contract. A positive number means you think the market underprices the event by more than the fees.
The table shows the break-even for prices five and ten cents either side of yours, so you can see how quickly the required edge changes.
Prediction Market Break-Even Calculator example
You enter
- Price (cents)
- 40¢
- Fee
- 2%
- Fee is charged on
- Winnings
- Your probability
- 45%
You get
- Price implies
- 40.0%
- Fees add
- 0.49 points
- Expected result per contract at your 45%
- $0.045
| Price | Break-even chance |
|---|---|
| 30¢ | 30.43% |
| 35¢ | 35.46% |
| 40¢ | 40.49% |
| 45¢ | 45.50% |
| 50¢ | 50.51% |
A 40¢ contract with a 2% fee on winnings needs a 40.49% chance, half a point more than the price. At a 45% estimate each contract averages about 4.5¢.
Prediction Market Break-Even Calculator questions
What is break-even in a prediction market?
The probability at which buying a contract has an expected net result of zero.
How do fees change it?
They add to the required chance by the share of profit or cost they take.
How much edge do I need?
Enough to cover the fee and to make up for noise in your own estimate; the table shows the minimum.
Is the market price my probability?
It is the market's. If yours is higher by more than the break-even gap you think the contract is underpriced.
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