Market vs Model Edge Calculator
Pick a game and side, enter the market price, and see the gap to the model.
- The model says
- 31.4%
- The market prices
- 44.5¢ (44.5%)
- If the model is right, per contract
- −$0.131
- Market price read
- Kalshi, 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. A gap says the two disagree, not which is right: the Markets pages keep the record of who was closer.
Model lines and crowd picks for 30 games in the next day and a half, as of Nov 4, 5:45 PM ET. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the market vs Model Edge Calculator works
Choose a game and a side. The model probability fills in from Bandwagon's latest stored line for that game, and where a Kalshi or Polymarket price is mapped to the game its de-vigged price fills the market box (labeled with the source and time).
The gap is model − market in percentage points. If the model is right, a yes contract at the market price is worth model × net profit − (1 − model) × loss per contract.
A gap is a disagreement, not a verdict. Both numbers are estimates; the Markets pages keep a public record of how close each has been to the results.
Market vs Model Edge Calculator example
You enter
- Model probability
- 55%
- Market price (cents)
- 50¢
- Fee
- 0%
You get
- The model says
- 55.0%
- The market prices
- 50¢ (50.0%)
- If the model is right, per contract
- $0.050
With the model at 55% and the market at 50¢, the model is 5.0 points above the market, worth about 5¢ per contract if the model is right.
Market vs Model Edge Calculator questions
What does a gap between the model and the market mean?
That two estimates of the same event differ. It is a prompt to look at why, not a signal that either is wrong.
Which is more accurate, the model or the market?
That is a question of record, not opinion: Bandwagon publishes how close each has been to the results on its Markets pages.
Where does the market price come from?
Kalshi's and Polymarket's public APIs, de-vigged, with the time it was read shown.
Can I enter my own numbers?
Yes. Leave the game blank and type both.
Related calculators
Crowd vs Model Gap Calculator
Pick a game from today's slate: the crowd's pick share against the model's win probability.
Prediction Market Break-Even Calculator
The probability you need to break even at a contract price once fees are paid.
Prediction Market De-Vig Calculator
Take the yes and no prices of a market and read the fair probability and the overround.