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Calculators · Odds and analysis

Crowd vs Model Gap Calculator

Pick a game and side to see how far the bandwagon sits from the model.

Reset
Crowd minus model+7.0 points62% crowd · 55% model
The crowd picks this side
62.0%
The model gives it
55.0%
Who is more bullish
the crowd

Crowd picks come from Bandwagon members and are never an input to the model.

Model lines and crowd picks for 30 games in the next day and a half, as of Nov 4, 12:46 PM ET. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.

How the crowd vs Model Gap Calculator works

The crowd is Bandwagon members' picks for the game (who they think wins), counted per side. The model probability is the latest stored line from the nightly ratings. The crowd is never an input to the model.

The gap is crowd − model in percentage points. A positive gap means the crowd is more bullish on that side than the model; a small crowd is noise, so the sample size is shown and the note warns under 25 picks.

Games where the two disagree most are on the Today page and the Markets pages, which also show Kalshi and Polymarket prices next to both.

Crowd vs Model Gap Calculator example

You enter

Crowd's share
62%
Model probability
55%

You get

Crowd minus model+7.0 points62% crowd · 55% model
The crowd picks this side
62.0%
The model gives it
55.0%
Who is more bullish
the crowd

With the crowd at 62% for a side and the model at 55%, the crowd is 7.0 points more bullish than the model.

Crowd vs Model Gap Calculator questions

What is the crowd?

Bandwagon members who picked a side for the game.

Is the crowd more accurate than the model?

Bandwagon publishes both records on the odds and markets pages.

Why does the page show a sample size?

Percentages from a handful of picks mean little.

Does the crowd change the model?

No. They are kept separate.

Related calculators

Market vs Model Edge Calculator

Pick a game from today's slate, enter a market price and see the gap to Bandwagon's model probability.

Win Probability to Spread Calculator

Turn a win probability into the point spread the model would set, per sport.

Implied Probability Calculator

The win chance a price implies, with the sportsbook's margin taken out.

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