Prediction Market Payout Calculator
Enter contracts, price and fee to see the net return if they settle yes.
- Cost
- $40.00
- Pays at settlement
- $100.00
- Profit before fees
- $60.00
- Fee
- $0.00
- Loss if it settles no
- −$40.00
- Break-even chance
- 40.00%
A contract pays $1 if it settles yes and nothing if it settles no. Set the fee to match the market you use: some charge on the trade, some on winnings.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the prediction Market Payout Calculator works
A contract bought at c cents costs c/100 dollars and pays $1 if it settles yes. N contracts cost N × c/100, pay N, and the gross profit is N × (100 − c)/100.
Fees differ between markets. This calculator takes a percentage, charged either on winnings (the fee is that share of the profit) or on the cost of the trade (the fee is added to what you pay). Set the one that matches the market you use; real fee schedules can be different from a flat percentage, so check the market's own.
The break-even chance is the probability at which your average net result is zero: cost ÷ (cost + net profit) for a fee on winnings. Compare it with your own estimate of the probability.
Prediction Market Payout Calculator example
You enter
- Contracts
- 100
- Price (cents)
- 40¢
- Fee
- 0%
- Fee is charged on
- Winnings
You get
- Cost
- $40.00
- Pays at settlement
- $100.00
- Profit before fees
- $60.00
- Fee
- $0.00
- Loss if it settles no
- −$40.00
- Break-even chance
- 40.00%
100 contracts at 40¢ cost 40.00, pay 100.00 and profit 60.00 before fees: a 150% return. The break-even chance is 40%.
Prediction Market Payout Calculator questions
How is a prediction market payout calculated?
Each winning contract pays $1. Net profit = contracts × (1 − price) minus fees.
What happens if the contract settles no?
It pays nothing and you lose what you paid, including any fee charged at purchase.
How should I enter the fee?
As a percentage, on winnings or on the cost, depending on how your market charges. Leave it 0 to see the gross numbers.
Can I use this for Kalshi or Polymarket?
Yes for the arithmetic of a binary contract; set the fee to your market's. Bandwagon only shows their prices for analysis and takes no part in trading.
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