Cross-Market Arbitrage Calculator
Enter yes and no prices on two markets: does any pair cost under $1?
- Cost per pair
- 87¢
- Pairs for $500
- 574
- Locked profit on those pairs
- $74.62
| Plan | Cost | Locked |
|---|---|---|
| Yes on A, No on B | 87¢ | 13¢ |
| Yes and No on A | 102¢ | −2¢ |
| Yes and No on B | 102¢ | −2¢ |
| Yes on B, No on A | 117¢ | −17¢ |
A pair is one yes and one no on the same event: exactly one pays $1. Fees come off the winner's profit. Settlement rules can differ between markets, which is the real risk the arithmetic does not show.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the cross-Market Arbitrage Calculator works
Buying yes on one market and no on the other covers both outcomes, and exactly one of the two contracts pays $1. If the pair costs less than 100¢ before fees, the difference is locked in.
The calculator checks the four pairs: yes on A with no on B, yes on B with no on A, and both sides on each single market. Fees come off the winner's profit; the locked profit per pair is the worse of the two outcomes.
What it cannot show is the real risk of this trade: the two markets can resolve differently, one price can move while you place the other, and liquidity limits the size. Check each market's rules before you rely on a gap.
Cross-Market Arbitrage Calculator example
You enter
- Market A, yes
- 45¢
- Market A, no
- 57¢
- Market B, yes
- 60¢
- Market B, no
- 42¢
- Fee on A
- 0%
- Fee on B
- 0%
- Budget
- $500
You get
- Cost per pair
- 87¢
- Pairs for $500
- 574
- Locked profit on those pairs
- $74.62
| Plan | Cost | Locked |
|---|---|---|
| Yes on A, No on B | 87¢ | 13¢ |
| Yes and No on A | 102¢ | −2¢ |
| Yes and No on B | 102¢ | −2¢ |
| Yes on B, No on A | 117¢ | −17¢ |
Yes at 45¢ on market A and no at 42¢ on market B cost 87¢ and pay 100¢ whichever way the event goes: a locked 13¢ per pair, 14.9% on the cost, and 574 pairs for a 500 budget.
Cross-Market Arbitrage Calculator questions
How does cross-market arbitrage work?
You buy opposite outcomes on two markets whose prices disagree, so the pair always pays $1 and costs less.
Why would two markets price the same event differently?
Different traders, fees, liquidity and sometimes different settlement rules.
Do fees matter?
Yes. A gap of a few cents can vanish after fees; enter each market's fee.
What are the risks?
Rules that differ on a void or a tie, prices moving between trades, and being unable to fill both sides.
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